Oil prices flew almost 6% on Monday at the start of exchanges in Asia before clearly temperating their increase, while the scholarships bowed, after the American strikes in Iran which make you fear a climb in the Middle East.
Around 8:45 am, the barrel of Brent from the North Sea gained 1.56% at 78.21 dollars, after jumping from 5.7% to 81.40 dollars at the start of exchanges, at the highest since the end of January.
The barrel of American WTI climbed 1.6% to 75.02 dollars after having risen up to 78.40 dollars a few hours earlier, also a summit for five months.
Tehran clearly threatened the United States with reprisals on Sunday, with the risk of off-controlled climbing in the Middle East, after American strikes that, according to Washington, destroyed the Iranian nuclear program.
Weekend developments have rekindled the fear of closing the Strait of Ormuz, off the Iranian coast, by which transit almost 20% of world oil and a third of oil traffic in the globe.
“The extent of the price increase will depend on the importance of production and supply disruptions, the key factor being the strangion neck of Ormuz”, summarize the experts of the MUFG bank on Monday.
“Many people see Iran get closer to a disturbance of logistics and the freedom of passage of ships crossing the Strait of Ormuz,” comments Chris Weston, of the Pepperstone broker.
But “Iran does not even need to officially engage in this extreme path to inflict economic damage to the world: by fueling the conviction that it could disrupt this essential logistics route, maritime costs (insurance and freight cost) could increase to the point of having a significant impact on the supply of hydrocarbons”, he insists.
After a temporary flambé following the first Israeli strikes, the oil market had timed last week, wait-and-see, the conflict that has not previously been seriously affected Iranian oil infrastructure and in the absence, until this weekend, of the United States.
However, according to Iranian reprisals, exports of black gold from the Middle East could be affected.
With a production of around 3.3 million barrels per day, Iran is the ninth producer in the world.
The International Energy Agency (IAI) “estimates that alternative terrestrial routes (at the Strait of Ormuz), such as the East-West Oleuduc from Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea and an Emirati oil pipeline can offer an alternative but their capacity barely represents a quarter of the typical daily volume transitors by Ormuz”, they continue.
On the other hand, “the high oil stocks of oil, the available reserve capacities of OPEC+ and the production of American shale gas could constitute a certain protection” in the immediate, they temperate.
Pressure grants, gauging economic risks in Asia
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei star index closed with a 0.12% withdrawal to 38,354.09 points and the widen Topix index dropped from 0.36% to 2,761.18 points.
The Seoul Stock Exchange stumbled by 1.24%, Sydney lost 0.36%and Taipei 1.42%. On the other hand, the Hong Kong Hang Seng index resisted around 06:30 GMT (+0.55%).
“Asia is a large net importer of oil and energy – in particular Thailand, South Korea, the Philippines and India. An oil shock would have a real negative impact on most Asian savings”, weighing on their current deficits and pushing inflation, warn MUFG experts.
Another concern: the approach of the date on the feet in July for the recovery of the so-called “reciprocal” customs surcharsh imposed by the Trump administration, and which target a number of Asian countries.
“We are only 18 days old. While Donald Trump will focus mainly on the Middle East, major securities on commercial negotiations could reappear in one and the concern of the markets could intensify,” said Chris Weston.
However, “if Iran attacks US military bases and the crude price reaches $ 100, we can assume that the probability of an extension of deadlines (to conclude trade agreements) will likely increase,” he adds.
This article was published automatically. Sources: ATS / AWP / AFP
