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The recent discoveries of MIT aerospace engineers raise concerns about the future of satellite operations in low terrestrial orbit. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide, causes the thermosphere contraction, resulting in a decrease in atmospheric drag. This reduction in drag means that space debris could stay in orbit longer, thus increasing the risk of collisions and complicating the management of this crucial region for satellites. In this context, it is essential to understand the implications of these phenomena to anticipate the future challenges that the space industry will face.
Impacts in atmospheric drag reduction
The decrease in atmospheric drag is a direct consequence of the thermosphere contraction caused by greenhouse gas emissions. William Parkera researcher in Aeroastro, explains that this reduction in the drag leads to an increase in the time during which the space debris remain in orbit. This pollutes not only the thermosphere, but also increases the risk of collisions between active satellites. If the emissions continue at their current rate, the number of satellites that can be used safely will be reduced.
The high terrestrial atmosphere plays a crucial role in the elimination of space debris through atmospheric drag. However, with the increase in emissions, this natural elimination capacity is compromised. The greenhouse gases cause warming on the earth’s surface, but also facilitate the radiation from energy to space, resulting in cooling from the upper atmosphere. This phenomenon, by reducing the density of the thermosphere, modifies the energy balance and thus alters the orbit conditions.
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Modeling of greenhouse gases
To model these effects, researchers have used atmospheric simulations which take into account the variations in co₂ concentration and their impact on density and thermal structure of the atmosphere. These simulations cover the low terrestrial orbit, up to 2,000 kilometers, where there are essential satellites for the Internet, navigation and weather forecasts.
Several scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions for the 21st century have been studied, by analyzing their impact on atmospheric density and associated trail. The results show that if emissions continue to increase, the capacity of orbits could be reduced from 50 to 66 % by 2100. This could occur earlier in regions already congested by mega-constellations like Starlink. With an increasing number of satellites launched each year, it is crucial to understand and mitigate these impacts to ensure the sustainability of our space activities.
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| Scenario | Reduced capacity |
|---|---|
| 2000 level | Stable |
| Increase according to IPCC SSP | 50 to 66 % by 2100 |
Clutter of the low terrestrial orbit
The natural cycle of solar activity naturally influences the thermosphere, contractor and dilating it every 11 years. However, greenhouse gases disturb this cycle, resulting in a more pronounced and durable contraction of the thermosphere. Recent measures show a contraction which cannot be attributed solely to solar activity.
Low terrestrial orbit becomes more and more congested, requiring precise atmospheric models to predict long -term developments. These models must integrate changes in the upper atmosphere to avoid dangerous saturation. The conclusions highlight the importance of international coordination in the management of space traffic to avoid a tragedy of common goods. Use lower altitudes could offer a temporary solution using the drag to quickly eliminate debris, but a global approach is necessary for sustainable management.
Towards sustainable management of space trafficking
Current work highlights the urgency of coordinated spatial traffic management. The variability of the spatial environment is a key factor in determining the lasting conditions for using low terrestrial orbit. A ineffective management could lead to chain collisions, making certain orbits unusable.
The advantages of exploiting lower altitudes are numerous, but they cannot compensate alone the effects of greenhouse gases. International collaboration is essential to implement effective policies and avoid dangerous thresholds. The issues are considerable and require immediate attention to guarantee the sustainability of space resources.
Faced with these challenges, how can the international community unite to protect our orbital space while allowing innovation and expansion of space technologies? This question remains central for the future of space activity.
The author relied on artificial intelligence to enrich this article.
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