This is how Trump could reduce wages in Switzerland

Donald Trump could have wage increases in Switzerland hounds.Image: keystone

The prospects for salary negotiations were good, according to the Swiss employers’ union. Similarly, Until Donald Trump gets involved.

Niklaus Vontobel / CH Media

Donald Trump imposed 39% customs duties on Switzerland. In addition, If it does not change your mind, it will massively impact our economy. this how trump could reduce Consequently, At least there is at least one consequence: the salary increases will probably suffer from it, from the negotiations of 2026.

This is at least what employers think, even if the unions continue to oppose it. Consequently, The employers’ union exposed its point of view in a press release. Moreover, 2025 has lost all semblance of normality since the American leader has gone from speech to trade policy acts. However, Still according to the ridge. Meanwhile, it would have:

Unions’ claims were already “excessive”, the employers continue. Similarly, In this new context, they are now “even more exaggerated”. However, The unions will obviously retort that customs duties only serve as a pretext for a reduction in wage concessions. Nevertheless, this year. Consequently, The employers are aware this how trump could reduce of this. Moreover, he tries to refute this argument by emphasizing the serious consequences of the taxes imposed by Washington.

Trump’s measures have changed the plans of many companies. Nevertheless, They no longer have the capacity to negotiate significant wage increases, because their priority is now to ensure their survival. Many have seen their margins collapse. In this context, generalized wage increases of more than 1% seem unrealistic.

A global impact – This how trump could reduce

For employers, Donald Trump’s “tariff hammer” ends up reaching almost all companies in Switzerland. Even those that export little or not to the United States feel the effects.

Companies directly concerned will first reduce their workforce and emphasize the increases. Households will then spend less, and other companies will slow down their investments. this how trump could reduce Little by little, the economic situation will deteriorate. In the end, warn employers, “companies will be restrained on wage increases”.

Paint the devil on the wall?

The employers’ association insists on the impact of Trump’s “price hammer”, especially to the unions. Work. Share, for its part, had already formulated its claims: a general increase of 2% for all employees. In sectors such as construction. health, he claims even more, believing that wages had progressed too little in the past. For the union. these 2% are necessary to cover the increase in the cost of living, in particular rents and health insurance premiums.

So, do employers exaggerate? According to Daniel Kalt. chief economist of UBS, the customs shock affects Switzerland as hard as that of the Swiss franc ten years this how trump could reduce earlier. For the specialist, however, the country surprisingly well overcome the crisis related to its currency.

A crisis even worse than ten years ago?

In 2015, the franc suddenly appreciated about 10% compared to its main business partners. With Trump’s policy, the exporters concerned must, however, collect +about 50%. Their goods are added by 39% due to customs duties and 10% due to the weakness of the dollar. For certain exports, it would therefore be much worse than ten years earlier.

Daniel Kalt is chief economist of the large UBS bank.Image: chmedia

This is the bad news, but, according this how trump could reduce to Kalt, there is also a good one. Unlike the shock of the franc, customs duties affect much less Swiss exports. They obviously do not impact the entire euro zone, and about five times less exports in total. In other words. the customs measure will affect much less than the franc crisis on exports, but much more strongly on those actually targeted. We could therefore, in the end, almost compare the two shocks.

What if we try to remember the extent of the damage in 2015? According to Daniel Kalt’s analysis, Switzerland was surprisingly well out. Exports had dropped by around 6% in 2015, before resuming. The industry had been put to the test, losing the equivalent of around 25,000 full -time jobs in two years. In the current context, the economist, however, expects less losses, of the order of 15,000 positions.

Trump. but not just

But the prospects in the matter have been deteriorating for a long time, long before customs measures from the United States. This is revealed by an investigation carried out with 8000 companies by the EPFZ (KOF) cyclical research center. Companies were still tabling on salary growth of 1.6% before negotiations of 2025. Before the salary negotiations of 2026, this figure fell by 0.3% to be 1.3%.

According to the KOF, companies are less constrained than before granting significant concessions. This is undoubtedly explained by the end of the shortage of qualified post-Cavid labor. In addition, inflation has greatly retreated, prices are increasing less quickly. Employers therefore have less to pay to offer their employees a salary that will increase their purchasing power.

(Translated this how trump could reduce from German by Valentine Zenker)

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