The Slovenian Tadej Pogacar is a favorite of the Tour of course, remains to be seen on the road what is his margin against the Danish Vingegaard who arrives in better condition than last year in Florence. Top start, Saturday July 5, from Lille!
Tadej Pogacar should not win in 2020. He should not lose in 2022 after winning in 2021 and he won again in 2024 after “let” Jonas Vingegaard win in 2022 and 2023.
Even if it remains very delicate to keep the wheel of these two phenomena and also, let’s face it, of ours, you will have understood that the Tour de France, for five years and the fall of the Sky-Aneos Empire (seven victories in eight years, will pay tribute to Nicolas Portal that one will never forget), can only be dominated by two runners: Danish. Richie door for a long time already withdrawn, Primoz Roglic, Richie Carapaz, Geraint Thomas, Adam Yates and more recently Remco Evenepoel have occupied the free spaces and other steps of the podium but, there is nothing to do, “pogi” and “twenty” let no one are approaching their yellow bowl.
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On the eve of the departure of the 112e Edition, from France, it is now an exception (Lille is “stuck” between Bilbao, Copenhagen and Florence on one side, Barcelona and Edinburgh on the other while Ljubjana is already impatient), even with a lot of imagination, it is difficult to consider a third man.
Condemned to shine upstairs below
Three weeks of madness to the mound montmartre may be enough to eliminate one, the other or even two champions, but it would take exceptional, unlikely circumstances, worse than the storm of Tignes (Julian Alaphilippe remembers it, Egan Bernal too but the Colombian is not there this year) and the 1998 hecatomm. At the pedal, none of the hundred and ninety other committed runners appeared to exist in front of the major duo. In our eyes, Pogacar keeps ahead of his “preferred” enemy but the Visma leader arrives in better condition that a year ago after his fall in the Basque Country. Behind, Primoz Roglic (four vueltas, a Giro, he only misses the coronation of France), still abused by his falls in the Giro that he has not finished, seems to be behind, even with two calibers like Vlasov and the young Lipowitz by his side.
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Remco Evenepoel, like the Spanish Carlos Rodriguez and Enric Mas, can be invited from time to time but does not (yet) represent a real threat.
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We mentioned a lot the case of the French on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of their last victory (Bernard Hinault in 1985 for those who would return from a trip to the Moon) and, unfortunately, last night brought nothing again to the file. They are condemned to shine upstairs.
Christian Prudhomme insisted a lot on this smiling route to the Punchers, it seems to us that the climbers are not bad either. If they avoid the traps of the “false” flat stages, stuffed with bumps (go to Pech David …) and dangerous turns, if they resist the Norman chrono, they will have a lot of reason to hope with arrivals at Mont-Dore, Hautacam, Superbagnères, Ventoux, Col de la Loze and La Plagne, with the bonus, chronoscedBetween Loudenvielle and Peyragudes. Let us quickly specify that Pogacar and Vingegaard display the same smile, predator as it should be, flying over, just for the moment, this rosary of summits to climb.
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The Butte Montmartre could thwart the plans of the sprinters if pampered for half a century (happy birthday) on the last Sunday, but not the final classification.
