An upcoming regime change
At the end of July, France is experiencing temperatures substantially under the normal of the period. Indeed, the anticyclone of Azores, which generally brings us calm and warm weather in this season, is centered far too west to truly influence us. On the contrary, its position allows small depressional areas to flow to central Europe, thus bringing us a flow of northwest fairly fresh air carrier at altitude and therefore temperatures regularly under the normal of the period.
Situation of July 31, 2025 on Europe – Modèle GFS via WX CHARTS
Nevertheless, the situation will evolve in the coming days and especially during the week of August 4 to 10, 2025. Indeed, the high pressures will gradually extend to the west of the European contain by the beginning of next week, thus ending this flow of northwest fairly fresh and weakly disturbed.
Animation of geopotentials at 500 hpa on Europe from August 1 to 7, 2025 – Modèle GFS via WX CHARTS
Thus, the flow will therefore gradually change at altitude, gradually tilting in the south/southwest by the next week next week in France, which will have the effect of bringing up a much warmer air mass from our country from the middle of the week.
Temperature animation at 850 hpa on Europe from August 1 to 8, 2025 – Modèle GFS via WX CHARTS
A scorching risk? Still uncertainties
If the air mass will therefore become hot as of next week at altitude, the heat will also increase near the ground with values that go back sharply above normal in the second part of next week, first on the west and the south and then quickly to the north before the weekend.
Animation of temperature anomalies at 2m on Europe for the week from August 4 to 10, 2025 – Via TropicalTidBits
Nevertheless, if the return of summer heat is ensured on the vast majority of the country, uncertainties persist as for its intensity and its duration. Indeed, the main forecast models do not agree on these points.
Uncertainties on the intensity of heat, especially in the north
The European model has seen a lift of hot air from the Iberian peninsula but its intensity as well as its extension to the north differ from the American model GFS, which sees it a more marked heat to the north of the country.
Comparison of temperatures at 850 hpa for August 7/8 on Europe – Modèles ECMWF HRES et GFS via WX CHARTS
Thus, if these two models are considering a heat peak between August 6 and 9, the intensity of this heat peak is still very uncertain, especially in the north of the country. For the American model, the heat would start on August 6 on the South and in particular the Southwest with already points at 38-39 or even 40 ° C possible, this heat would further increase the next day over a large part of the south of the country while spreading towards the north half. A drop in temperatures would then be observed on the north on August 8, while the heat would remain marked or even a scorching on the south to the weekend.
Evolution of maximum temperatures between August 6 and 9, 2025 on France – GFS model via Meteologix
The European model is generally less hot with less intense heat and a significantly different timing, since the heat would propagate to the northern half than in August 8, before a drop also for the weekend. This heat would also remain marked during the weekend on the southern half, however a notch below what the American model envisages.
Evolution of maximum temperatures between August 7 and 9, 2025 on France – ECMWF Model HRES via weather
Sustainable heat in the south
If a drop in temperatures seems to be envisaged for the weekend in the north of France, the south seems on the contrary to remain subject to a marked heat, potentially scorching at least until the beginning of next week or even beyond. Indeed, the main forecast models agree on this point this morning.
Evolution of temperatures at 850 HPA on Europe from August 7 to 12, 2025 – ECMWF model HRES via WX CHARTS
Thus, the south of the country could undergo a real scorching period starting out from the middle of the week from August 4 to 10 and which can last until the following week, a situation which should be monitored carefully in these regions.
To the north, according to the latest forecasts, the heat stroke remained temporary during the week of August 4, but, as visible on the previous animation, a heat of heat could again be observed for the following week, a trend that will therefore remain to be confirmed.
Author: Tristan Bergen
