Australia’s mining and energy export income should continue to decrease over the next two years, due to high risks linked to commercial barriers, the lower prices for bulk -worldwide raw materials and a gloomy global economic situation, said a government report published on Monday.
The second quarter report, drawn up by the Australian Department of Industry, Sciences and Resources, stresses that the uncertainties surrounding the policies of US President Donald Trump have disrupted world trade, pushing businesses to delay their investment decisions.
“Increased prudence has led to a new weakening of the activity. The uncertainty that results from it is likely to affect the global demand for raw materials, the customers’ countries of Australia being affected, ”says the report.
“The perspectives are more uncertain than usual. »»
In April, Donald Trump imposed a 10 % customs right on goods from most countries, although he suspended the higher tax application for many business partners for 90 days, until next month.
Last week, Trump announced that the United States had signed a trade agreement with China, the main trading partner in Australia, without specifying the terms.
For the year 2024-2025, which ends this month, Australia is expected to record revenues of 385 billion Australian dollars ($ 252 billion) from raw materials, compared to 415 billion in 2023-2024.
This figure should further drop to 369 billion next year, then to 352 billion in 2026-2027.
According to the report, the prices of the iron ore, the main Australian export, as well as the liquefied natural gas (LNG), should be flexed due to an increased global offer. Revenues from ironi exports could increase from Australian $ 116 billion this year to 105 billion next year, then to 97 billion in 2026-2027.
Gold should shine next year and become the third Australian export, behind the iron ore and LNG, with revenues estimated at 56 billion Australian dollars, carried both by the increase in volumes and prices, according to the report.
“The rise in gold prices, as well as the expected growth of copper and lithium exports, partially compensate for the impact of the drop in prices of iron, coal and LNG ore,” said the Minister of Resources, Madeleine King, in a statement.
Lithium prices are expected to recover slowly after their recent fall, with increased revenues up, going from 4.6 billion Australian dollars this year to more than 5.5 billion next year, then more than 6.6 billion in 2026-2027, according to the report.
(1 $US = 1,5279 dollars australiens)
(Renju Jose report in Sydney; edition by Jamie Freed)
