Swisscanto week graphic. The publication of the latest figures in US inflation reveals the first symptoms of an inflationary thrust on imported products.
Less than three months after the entry into force of the new Trumpian prices, the prices of several goods imported into the United States are on the rise. According to the latest inflation figures published in mid-July, certain posts in the American consumption basket are already affected. A progressive, but measurable rise.
On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration launched a new salvo of customs duties as part of the policy called “Liberation Day” which marked a significant hardening of the American commercial strategy. Displayed objective: promoting reindustrialisation, reducing trade deficit and asserting enhanced economic sovereignty. But this protectionist strategy has an immediate effect: upward pressure on prices, the slightest sign of which is now watched by analysts, investors and teams of economists of the federal reserve.
A customs right, if it is formally paid by the importer, is in practice absorbed throughout the value chain (wholesalers, distributors, shops) to finally be reflected in the consumer. The effects on the prices, demand and profits of the impacted actors remain difficult to estimate, as they depend, in others, on the structure of the market (competition) or the elasticity of the final demand. However, the analysis of the figures published on July 15 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the effects of these new taxes are already beginning to be felt on the consumer price index. Annual inflation indeed reached 2.7% in June (0.3% in a monthly rate), in acceleration compared to the 2.4% of the previous month, while underlying inflation (excluding food and energy) is 2.9%.
Certain categories of goods, strongly exposed to imports, record increases much higher than the historical average. This is the case of household furniture and items, the prices of which increased by 1.0% since last month. This category, which represents around 3% of the American consumption basket, seems to be one of the first visible relays of the tariff effect. Leisure items (+0.8%over the month, for a weighting of approximately 2%) and clothing (+0.4%, weighting of 2.5%) are also affected. Herself three, these segments represent approximately 8% of the ICC basket, and alone explain the inflationary thrust recorded on goods between May and June (“Core Goods” in the illustration).
These increased increases, although localized, mark the beginning of a dynamic inflationary caused by customs measures. If the trend should be extended over time and extend to other sectors, the American commercial strategy could have a wider economic cost than that initially anticipated, with the key a prudent and under political pressure reserve.
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