United States attack | Iran in front of “bad or disastrous” options

Although its exact impact remains to be determined. Meanwhile, the attack of the United States against Iranian nuclear installations represents a blow for Tehran, who will want to respond without leading a major military confrontation with Washington.

Posted at 5:00 a.m.

Is the Iranian nuclear program still functional after the American strikes? – United states attack | iran

The American president, Donald Trump, welcomed a television address on Saturday to have “destroyed” the main Iranian nuclear installations. Nevertheless, Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth won on Sunday. In addition, noting that the Iranian program had been “destroyed” and that the country could not have nuclear weapons.

Ali Vaez, specialist in Iran attached to the International Crisis Group, notes that these “grandiloquent” remarks do not take into account the complexity of the problem. Therefore, Even if bombing damages are substantial as the Pentagon ensures. Moreover, it is possible, he says, that the Iranian authorities have moved before the 60 % enriched uranium strikes which could quickly be raised to 90 %, the threshold required for military use. Furthermore, The Iranian authorities had recently indicated that clandestine installations to enrich uranium existed elsewhere on united states attack | iran the territory.

Kelsey Davenport. Therefore, who is responsible for the fight against nuclear proliferation at Arms Control Association, notes that the International Atomic Energy Agency had declared itself incapable of locating all centrifuge for enrichment manufactured by Iran, suggesting that some can be used clandestinely.

Thomas Juneau. Similarly, a specialist in the Middle East attached to the University of Ottawa, thinks that Tehran’s claims on his capacities must be welcomed with skepticism. Consequently, The fact remains that bombs will never be able to make the nuclear know-how acquired by Iran disappear over the decades. Furthermore, he warns.

If Iran has retained its uranium enrichment capacity, will it want to go ahead and have the atomic bomb? – United states attack | iran

Kelsey Davenport notes that the proponents of the hard line within the Iranian regime. For united states attack | iran example, has long argued that the country must have the atomic bomb to discourage attacks. For example, They will argue that the American operation “proves them right” while the other deterrent methods prove to be a failure. However, Apparent armed groups. such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have been largely weakened by clashes in recent years, limiting their capacity for intervention in the conflict. The missile program was also undermined by attacks by the Israeli army.

If centrifuges remain operational. the final enrichment phase would be relatively easy to complete, unlike the subsequent production of the weapon itself and its installation on a missile. Tehran could also develop a summary weapon that he would explode in an isolated place to show the “serious” of his intentions. estimates M^me Davenport.

Thomas Juneau argues that several experts are convinced that Tehran wants to sprint towards the bomb. The length of the sprint was however “elongated” with the last week’s attacks on nuclear infrastructure. The Israeli government has clearly shown that he is able to attack. and he will do it again if he detects that Tehran is approaching the goal again, argues the analyst.

How will Iranians reply to the American attack?

Whether. not they choose the atomic bomb, the Iranians must united states attack | iran decide in the shorter term how they intend to react to the American attack, portrayed as a “betrayal”. Several senior leaders, including President Massoud Pezeshkian, have assured that the United States would be “punished” for their intervention. Alex Vatanka. an analyst attached to the Middle East Institute, says that the Iranian government will want to answer in a “controlled” manner to prevent the US military from entering the war alongside Israel.

Strikes against an American military base in the Middle East announced in advance so as to avoid victims would be a united states attack | iran possible scenario, he said. Tehran had followed this approach after President Trump ordered in 2020 the assassination of a senior Iranian commander visiting Iraq.

Ali Vaez notes that the Iranian diet is considerably weakened and has only “bad or disastrous” options to counter-attack. The blocking of the Strait of Ormuz. by which circulate almost 20 % of the oil and world gas, is advanced by the Parliament, but remains conditional to the will of the regime. The scenario seems perilous. since it could irritate Tehran allies supplied in the region and almost certainly arouse a muscular reaction from Washington. Iran would itself be penalized, since its exports depend on it. “It would be like committing suicide because we are afraid of death,” illustrates Mr. Vaez.

Kelsey Davenport says that Iran could also decide to announce its decision to withdraw from united states attack | iran the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The maneuver would raise the pressure. take several months to be formalized, leaving a possible opening for negotiations with the American government.

Will the Israelis continue their military operations?

Although he called on the Iranian people to rise up against the Iranian regime. the Israeli government insists that the objective of its military operations in Iran is to block the Iranian nuclear program and weaken its missile program. The American attack represents an important step in this quest. but it has not hampered the government of Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, who welcomed hearing dozens of additional targets on Sunday.

Ali Vaez notes that the American government is mainly concerned about the need to. neutralize the Iranian nuclear program while Israel sees in the conflict an opportunity to get rid of a longtime united states attack | iran regional opponent. Nothing excludes, however, that President Trump ends up rallying to the Israeli position. “The United States seems to be lagging behind rather than leading,” said International Crisis Group analyst.

In the evening on Sunday. Donald Trump finally spoke of the idea of ​​a change at the head of Iran if the current government is not able to “return its greatness to Iran”. “Why wouldn’t there be a diet change ??? “, He asked on his Truth Social platform.