Wall Street: ADP at half mast, upward jobs

On this shortened stock market Thursday, where the United States is preparing to draw fireworks and hot dogs to celebrate the independence day (Wall Street fence at midday), the indices climb modestly: +0.3% for the S&P, +0.5% for the NASDAQ and +0.1% for the DOW.

The restraint may seem offset given the employment report published at 8:30 am New York hour: the American economy has created more positions than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% against 4.3% anticipated. The unemployed weekly registrations stand out at 233,000, and time wages only advance by 0.2%: a “golden loops” statistic, neither too hot to scare the Fed, nor too cold to announce decrepitude.

This good surprise contrasts with the reading of ADP the day before: 33,000 private jobs lost in June, where the consensus awaited 98,000 more. The Nasdaq 100 had only folped 0.2%, the digital equivalent of an eyebrow (barely) raised. Then … nothing.

This is the 2025 market: reactive, certainly, but viscerally optimistic, even when the facts give way to doubt. The American investor becomes an alchemist: he transmutes any information in raw materials of hope. The federal reserve requires more concrete facts: temperate wages, increasing unemployment, asks down, before considering loosening the rent for money. Jerome Powell, leader of the “Higher for Longer” camp, hammers that inflation remains “sticky” (resilient) and the “solid” labor market. The figures of the day offer him a fresh argument.

The traders still bet, last week, out of 20.7% of probability of a gesture from the Fed in July; The bet rose to 25.3%. Now, pure fantasy. Bond yields have jumped: the credit market remembers how to shudder. Actions, doped for a year by IA dreams and the story of soft landing, remain imperturbable. No drop in rate? Too bad. No recession? So much the better. From now on, the scholarship has integrated that good news is good, that bad news is … good too, and that only the absolute disaster deserves panic.

This surréelle logic is illustrated by customs discussions between Washington and Hanoi. Not recently, Donald Trump, in the middle of “Liberation Day”, brandished the threat of a right of 46 % on Vietnamese products. Then the real announcement yesterday: an agreement capping the price at 20 %. Nike, which makes half of his shoes in Vietnam, jumped 4%. It does not matter that 20% remains a salty sample; The main thing, for the markets, is that it is not 46%.

Under this shift of shoulders, however, hides a real cost. A right of 20% will be translated sooner or later by higher prices for importers, therefore for the American consumer, already rolled up by years of inflation and brinquebalant supply chains. The agreement also provides for a surcharge of 40% on products simply “in transit” via Vietnam: a firewall against Chinese detours.

On the sidelines of this macro, the scholarship is always passionate about the microphone. Tripadvisor flew by 9% after entry to the capital of the Starboard Value activist (> 9%). Perhaps more significant: the jump of synopsys and descence design systems (+6% both) after the lifting of American restrictions on their flea design software for China. Do you have to see a strategic softening of Washington to keep your hands on the global chains of value? Or a simple truce before the next offensive? Regardless: the market has applauded.

Elsewhere, stock markets play their own score. Asia ends in dispersed order: Tokyo and Sydney stagnate, Hong Kong cedes 0.7% and erases part of its earnings from the day before. The PMI index of Chinese services disappoints once again: the great inner recovery promised by Beijing is long overdue. Taiwan and South Korea benefit from the technological breath from the United States: +0.7% and +1.2%. Bombay wins 0.4 %. In Europe, indecision is queen, but green prevails after the US employment data.

The quotes of the day:

• Dollar Index: 96,512
• Or: 3 344 USD
• Crude oil (Brent): 68,64 USD (WTI) 66,59 USD
• United States 10 years: 4,34 %
• BITCOIN: 109 300 USD

Business news:

• Vale has revised down its forecasts for the production of iron ore production for 2025.
• Tesla announced a 3.7 % increase in its sales of electric vehicles in China in June.
• Lucid Group has not achieved its delivery objectives for the second quarter due to a low demand.

• ActionCentene fell by 40 % and withdrew its procurement forecasts for 2025.

• Lands’ End has received acquisition offers from Authentic Brands and Whp Global.
• Enterprise Products Partners has been authorized to resume its ethane expeditions to China.
• Embraer announced a 30 % increase in its aircraft deliveries in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year.
• Microsoft has announced a reduction of 9,000 employees.
• Synopsys and Cadence are preparing to resume their exports of flea design software to China.

• The activist investor Starboard Value has acquired more than 9 % participation in the online travel company Tripadvisor.

• Vietnam will buy 50 Boeing planes, according to Politico.

• Nuista reduces its annual production forecasts due to delays in a third party.
• Alpha and Omega Semiconductor will pay $ 4.25 million to settle a dispute with the American trade department concerning the delivery of goods to Huawei Technologies.
• Boeing and the US Ministry of Justice asked a federal judge to approve an agreement that would raise the accusations of criminal fraud linked to the 737 max crashes and save the legal proceedings manufacturer in exchange for fines and a victims compensation fund.
• Synopsys said that the US restrictions on exporting its flea design software to China had been lifted, a decision followed by Cadence and Siemens, which increased the actions of automated electronic design companies.
• Datadog will enter the S&P 500 index on July 9, replacing Juniper Networks, which increased the course of the cloud surveillance company before this change.
• Nike and other Vietnam-based manufacturers were relieved after President Trump set customs duties on Vietnamese exports to the United States at 20 %, a rate lower than forecasts.
• AT&T finalized the sale of its remaining participation of 70 % in Directv in the TPG Capital Investment Capital Company for $ 7.6 billion.
• Alibaba Cloud will invest more than $ 60 million during this financial year in incentives for its partners and in joint marketing actions in order to accelerate the global adoption of its artificial and cloud intelligence services.

Analysts recommendations:

• Fedex Corporation: BNP Paribas Exane points out its recommendation to “underperform” to “outperform” and raises its target of 230 to 270 US dollars.
• Huntington Bancshares Incorporated: Wolfe Research notes his note of “performance similar to that of the sector” in “outperformance”, with a target of 21 dollars.
• International GA: Macquarie notes its recommendation to “underperform” to “outperform” and raises its target of 37 dollars.
• Marvell Technology Group LTD: Sinopac Securities notes its recommendation of “neutral” to “buy” with a price target of 89 USD.
• PNC Financial Services Group, Inc .: Wolfe Research lowers its “outperformance” note to “Performance similar to that of the market”.
• United Bâl Service, Inc .: BNP Paribas Exane lowers its note from “sub-performative” to “neutral” with a course lens brought from 105 USD to 1005 USD.
• API Group Corporation: Citigroup maintains its purchase recommendation with a price of courses noted of 31.33 dollars at 39 dollars.
• Citizens Financial Group, Inc .: Morgan Stanley maintains its “neutral” recommendation and raises its price for 43 to 53 US dollars.
• Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd: Mizuho Securities maintains its “outperformance” recommendation and raises its price of courses from 81 to 98 US dollars.
• Datadog, Inc .: Wedbush maintains its “outperform” recommendation and raises its price of course from 140 to 170 US dollars.
• East West Bancorp, Inc .: Morgan Stanley maintains its “neutral” recommendation and raises its price of courses from 90 to 111 US dollars.
• Fluor Corporation: Truist Securities maintains its recommendation “Buying” and notes its price target from 47 to 59 US dollars.
• Fortive Corporation: Truist Securities maintains its recommendation “Buy” and reduces the price of courses from 82 USD to 60 USD.
• JPMORGAN CHASE & CO .: Morgan Stanley maintains its “neutral” recommendation and raises its target from 240 to 296 US dollars.
• Robinhood Markets, Inc .: Citic Securities CO LTD maintains its recommendation for purchase and notes its target of course from 80 to 105 dollars.
• Webster Financial Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains its “neutral” recommendation and raises its price as a price from $ 64 to American dollars.