The New York Stock Exchange is expected to register on the first discussion in the first discussion on Friday due to new developments on the commercial front, despite the more pronounced slowdown than expected of job creations last month, which opens the door to a next drop in the Fed rate.
Half an hour before opening, the ‘future’ on the main indices yield between 0.9% and 1.2%, announcing an opening in the red.
The US economy only created 73,000 non -agricultural jobs in July, according to the Department of Labor, a large number lower than the expectations of economists, which were generally around 105,000.
The unemployment rate has also increased by 0.1 point to 4.2%, in accordance with market consensus, while the number of job creations for the month of June has been revised in sharp decline, from +147,000 to +14,000.
The term contracts on the indices have slightly reduced their losses following these figures less good than expected, which strengthen the scenario of a monetary easing on the part of the Federal Reserve from September.
According to the Fedwatch barometer of the CME Group, the probability of a drop in rate of 25 base points at the start of the school year is skyrocketing at 62.9% following this publication, against 37.7% yesterday.
If this statistic is well received by investors, the question of customs duties remains the main engine of the market on this date of August 1 marking the deadline of the ultimatum decided by Donald Trump concerning the implementation of customs from customs announced during the Liberation Day ‘.
The American president signed an imposing decree of customs rights last night, ranging from 10% to 41% on American imports from several foreign countries, including 39% for Swiss exports for the United States, 25% for India, 20% for Taiwan, 19% for Thailand and 10% for Singapore.
He also noted customs duties on Canadian products at 35 %, compared to 25 % before, for all products not covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement, while granting Mexico a 90-day suspended to negotiate a broader trade agreement.
Wei Yao, economist at Société Générale, recognizes that these announcements constitute a harder shock than expected, but also notes that the markets, although shaken, react less violently than they had done in April.
‘We are getting more and more used to the idea that prices ranging from 15% to 20% are manageable and acceptable in view of the much more serious threats that had been brandished before,’ said the analyst.
The quarterly results of the two American oil heavy goods vehicles, Chevron and Exxonmobil, were welcomed without much emotion this morning.
It is not the same for Apple, which has reassured the market with much better than expected results, notably due to the return of iPhone sales growth in China. The title won around 1.7% in pre -opening.
But the feeling is increased by the publication of Amazon, the growth of the ‘Cloud’ branch of the Internet giant having disappointed in the second quarter, as well as its forecasts communicated for the current quarter, hence the fall of almost 8% accused by the action in fore-bourse.
At the end of this intense and high -risk week, animated both by the results of companies, the monetary issues and the commercial soap opera, the S&P 500 currently accuses a weekly withdrawal of less than 0.4% which can appear in the light of the many challenges that were at stake.
