A woman walks on Wall Street in New York
by Claude Chendjou
Wall Street is expected to be stable at the opening Thursday and European scholarships are on low variations in mid-session, the prevailing dominant before the publication of the monthly report on American employment, a key indicator in the evolution of interest rates. Futures in New York indices report an opening of Wall Street up 0.11% for Dow Jones, 0.06% for Standard & Poor’s 500 and 0.08% for NASDAQ after a fence on Wednesday on record levels for these last two indices.
In Paris, the CAC 40 lost 0.10% to 7,731.37 points around 11:15 a.m. GMT. In Frankfurt, the Dax nibbles 0.06% and in London, the FTSE takes 0.41%, pulled by raw materials.
The pan -European FTSEUROFIRST 300 grapple index clips 0.09% and the EuroStoxx 50 in the euro zone abandons 0.12%. The STOXX 600, driven mainly by real estate (+0.46%) and energy (+0.44%) increased by 0.16%.
Investors will take note of the figures for the month of non-agricultural positions, the unemployment rate and the evolution of wages at 12:30 p.m. This report is very monitored by the American Federal Reserve (Fed), in a hurry to lower its guiding rates from July, in fear of sustainable job market. The Reuters consensus provides for the month of June a slowdown in job creations to 110,000 after 139,000 in May and a rise in the unemployment rate at 4.3%, while wage growth should stagnate at 3.9% over a year.
“The president (Jerome) Powell, who runs the Fed camp to maintain the rates at their current level, maintains that a persistent inflation and a solid labor market mean that the key rate should be maintained slightly restrictive,” write Ing analysts in a note.
“Obviously, any negative surprise in the employment report would weaken its position (that of Powell) and would allow the market to continue to anticipate a drop in rates at the July meeting,” they add.
In addition to employment, the market will also monitor the ISM index of services at 2:00 p.m. GMT for the month of June. In Europe, the PMI S&P Global and HCOB survey has shown that the euro area services sector had returned to growth in June, with a final index at 50.5, after a brief contraction in May. In Great Britain, the service sector has increased in June at its fastest rate for almost a year, with a PMI index at 52.8.
These encouraging data are added to a appeasement of Sino-American tensions and a renewed optimism on the commercial front following an agreement between the United States and Vietnam before the deadline of July 9 on customs duties.
The lifting by the United States of exports to China exports for flea design software developers and ethane producers also strengthens the feeling of the market.
Trump’s Donald’s budget draft, which provides for massive tax reductions and a spectacular increase in expenses, is also at the center of attention with its return to the House of Representatives.
The values to follow at Wall Street
Synopsys and Cadence Design Systems design software publishers climb 6.7% and 5.9% in front of restrictions in the sector respectively.
Values in Europe
Virbac climbs more than 6% after raising the recommendation of Oddo BHF on the French animal health specialist of “neutral” in “outperformance”, with a lens of courses at 395 euros.
Pluxee, the former Division of advantages to Sodexo employees, jumped 5.6% thanks to a quarterly turnover up 11.1% and confirmation of its annual objectives.
Siemens advances 1.3%, the German group having announced the restoration of access to its software and technologies for its Chinese customers.
Rate The yield of American treasury bills at ten years loses three base points, at 4.2631% before the employment report. The day before he had won just over four points.
That of the German Bund at ten years gives in 4.4 base points, to 2.575%, while the European Central Bank must publish at 11:30 am GMT the “minutes” of its last monetary policy meeting.
CHANGES
The dollar grabbed 0.03% against a basket of currencies, remaining close to its lowest level of three and a half years reached this week, upstream of the publication of the employment report.
The euro fell 0.03%, to 1.1794 dollars, after having touched in session 1.180 dollars, close to its September 2021 peak reached earlier this week.
The Sterling book is exchanged at 1.3658 dollars (+0.16%), after a drop of almost 1% on Wednesday, when the British Prime Minister’s office Keir Starmer had to come to the support of the Minister of Finance, Rachel Reeves, after rumors that she would be dismissed due to investors’ concerns on British finances.
OIL
The oil market is falling back on Thursday due to uncertainty about American customs duties and OPEC+supplies.
The Brent refused 0.26% to 68.93 dollars per barrel and the American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) declines 0.27% to 67.27 dollars.
Main economic indicators at the July 3 agenda:
Pays GMT indicator previous consensus period
USA 12:30 p.m. job creations not June 110,000 139,000
agricultural
– unemployment rate 4.3% 4; 2%
USA 12:30 p.m. Weekly registrations at the week at 240,000,236,000
unemployment June 28
USA 2:00 p.m. ISM index of the Services June 50.5 49.9
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Augustin Turpin)
