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The European Commission recently unveiled an ambitious roadmap aimed at eliminating Russian fossil fuels from its energy mix by 2027. This announcement comes after months of growing criticism concerning the massive liquefied natural gas import (LNG) from Russia. Dan Jorgensen, European Energy Commissioner, presented this plan in Strasbourg, thus transforming the political promises of the block into binding measures. This initiative is part of a tense geopolitical context where Europe’s energy independence from Russia has become a strategic priority.
Russian LNG imports increasing
Despite a general drop in fossil fuels imports from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian LNG imports increased by 18 % in 2024. This significant increase is against European efforts to reduce its energy dependence on Russia. In 2024, the European Union spent 23 billion euros in Russian fossil fuels, directly contributing to the Kremlin war budget. Pawel Czyzak, a researcher to EMBER, stresses that this European Commission plan aims to revive political momentum towards total energy independence. However, he mentions that Russian gas still represented between 17.5 and 19 % of total EU imports in 2024.
Energy security has been a major concern since the Russian invasion, but disturbances in the world markets have led to economic challenges, including high increases and a cost of living crisis for European households. The path to energy independence is strewn with pitfallsand the commission’s approach was criticized for its inconsistency.
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An incoherent exit path
Until now, LNG has not been included in EU sanctions packets against Russia. In March 2025, the Commission prohibited transhipments in Russian LNG via European ports to non -EU countries. However, Russian LNG imports for European domestic consumption have not been affected, and some countries have benefited. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), France, Belgium and Spain are the main entry doors of Russian LNG in Europe.
France, thanks to its advanced infrastructure, increased its Russian LNG imports by 81 % in 2024, paying 2.68 billion euros to Russia. Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, an analyst at IEEFA, expresses her concern about the potential re-export of this gas to other European countries, once re-eased in the French network. Once integrated into the network, it becomes impossible to draw its originwhich could allow Russian gas to be rebuilt as European.
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Repuowreu, a strategy to review
The REPOWEREU program launched in 2022 aimed to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels, to promote renewable energies and to diversify suppliers. However, according to Pawel Czyzak, the EU has progressed in its energy transition but has taken a bad direction in gas imports. LNG from the United States now dominates the supply of the EU, but Czyzak doubts its reliability. The United States exerted pressure on Europe to buy its gas, going so far as to threaten taxes in the event of non-compliance.
Despite efforts to secure alternative gas sources, energy prices remain high in Europe. In 2024, gas prices increased by 59 %, and although the end of the heating season has resulted in a slight drop, prices remain much higher than the pre-war levels. This accentuates the industrial disadvantage of Europe compared to the United States and China.
Lasting solutions beyond LNG
Rather than replacing Russian gas with another importer, experts agree that the EU must reduce its overall gas consumption. If reducing industrial energy needs seems difficult, Jaller-Makarewicz sees real potential in reducing European household consumption. Building better isolated houses to reduce gas demand for heating and promoting residential solar panels would be effective measures.
However, as the reaction to the German law on heat pumps has shown, green reforms require public support to be effective. The European Commission’s roadmap must now be approved by the Member States. Although a qualified majority vote is sufficient, political risks are obvious. Countries like Hungary, Slovakia and Austria, still dependent on Russian gas, have already expressed their opposition to such measures.
The EU energy roadmap raises crucial questions for the energy future of Europe. Will cooperation between the Member States be sufficient to overcome political differences and secure the energy supply of the block while respecting the ecological objectives?
The author relied on artificial intelligence to enrich this article.
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