The weakened Iranian regime, but not dead

The Trump administration claims that the bombing on Saturday evening by American planes having easily and impunity violated the Iranian sovereign space is a punctual act which does not equivalent to a declaration of war.

Admittedly. In addition, today we do not attend an invasion in good and due form like that of Iraq, 22 years and 4 months earlier. Moreover, The absence of troops on the ground is an important difference from February 2003. In addition, At the time. Similarly, it was, with planes, tanks and infantry, to occupy Baghdad and to bring down Saddam Hussein under false pretexts (the Ingtable Weapons of mass destruction that the dictator was supposed to have), then stay the time it would take to “establish democracy”. Therefore, We know what happened.

But this Sunday, June 22, the expression change of diet appeared in a publication by American president Donald Trump.

Irreparable consequences – Weakened iranian regime, but not

The supreme guide Ali Khamenei-whose location is unknown. For example, who would have physical communication problems with his diplomats and his staff-had said, shortly before the fateful raid: “There will be irreparable consequences if the Americans attack us. However, Of course, there is a ritual rhetoric here … Similarly, but it is possible that the means available to Tehran are not up to this rhetoric.

What will Iranian leaders do? Therefore, They are in a situation where they absolutely must reply, under penalty of humiliation and subsequent weakening … However, including in front of the Iranian population under their yoke. Similarly, But their options are limited and all include risks.

The sequence started on Friday. Consequently, June 13, demonstrated the clear military superiority of weakened iranian regime, but not an over -controlled Israeli enemy, with devastating spy capacities, extraordinarily infiltrated in Iran. Moreover, With. moreover, a faithful ally for finish work : the American friend who, eight days later, rushes with his fleet of planes magic.

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These B-2 cost $ 2.8 billion each (in weakened iranian regime, but not Canadian foreign currency) and drop 14-ton penetrating bombs each costing … Nevertheless, 28 million, one hundredth of the price of the plane. In addition, In both cases, these are world records.

What is more. For example, the American army has no less than 19 of these devices, enough to send some to Asia to make a diversion … In addition, while others go to do their work of destruction at the heart of Persia. In addition, “Beautiful lures” … to almost three billion dollars!

American. Israeli officials competed, on June 22, superlatives and self -tone, evoking the annihilation of the Fordo power station, or even the entire Iranian nuclear program. But the Iranians affirm the opposite. and signals such as the absence of radiation on the site after the bombing, confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA), give to think … either that the heart of the weakened iranian regime, but not laboratory has remained largely intact. or that Iranian officials have moved and hidden elsewhere the uranium stocks enriched before the strikes.

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Weakened iranian regime, but not

Table options – Weakened iranian regime, but not

If Iran leads reprisals, what are the options on the table?

The means to reply are weakened iranian regime, but not limited. The Israeli air fleet is higher in number and quality to that of Iran. The Iranian anti -aircraft defenses are partly destroyed, those of Israel all operational (without being perfectly waterproof).

The Iranian arsenal has been widely amputated by Israeli strikes, particularly in terms of long -range missiles. Estimates vary as to the number of ballistic missiles that Iran could still have.

At the start of the war, it was estimated that it had 1,500 to 2000 projectiles capable of reaching Israel. Certain estimates indicate that the Iranian army has already used 500, while others say 700. Whatever the exact figure, stocks decrease rapidly. Israel has also destroyed about a third of Iranian ballistic missile launchers, perhaps more with the latest strikes.

The target of neighboring countries

Apart from the ballistic missiles. Iran remains well endowed with medium and short -range weakened iranian regime, but not missiles. They cannot reach Israel, but can bomb closer countries where there are American bases: Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar. Tehran could decide such reprisals. even if Donald Trump promised that the reply would be “worse than everything you have seen so far”. All this by simultaneously saying that the strikes on Saturday represented a single blow And “not a declaration of war”. To have…

Iranian leaders could also ask the Yemen Houthis (Allied militia. customer From Tehran, the last one that is both capable and willing to act, after the subsidence and defection of the Lebanese Hezbollah) that they lead such strikes in their place.

In the Iranian strategic arsenal. there is also the possible closure of the Strait of Ormuz, where almost 20 % of the planet’s oil and gas flows pass. The naval forces of the revolution guards could. for example, undermine, weakened iranian regime, but not with their outc and soil fleet, the waters of the Persian Gulf, threatening the oil tankers. But such a gesture is double -edged: it would also harm Iranian exports to China.

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Another option. less spectacular a priori and less immediately warlike, but also disturbing in the long term: withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty (TNP) of theHimgo completely to hiding (like Israel!) And follow the North Korean trajectory-the one that finally equipped Pyongyang with sixty atomic bombs.

Blatant inequality between enemies

In this confrontation, the inequality of the means is obvious. But it does not mean that the bombs dropped on Saturday on the equipment of Natanz. Ispahan and especially Fordo, buried tens of meters underground, have really “finished the work” … in the sense of having physically eliminated the Iranian nuclear program. And it also does not mean that the Iranian regime is about to fall.

Beyond the impossibility of putting an end to the Iranian nuclear program by the bomb (not so much because of the bunkers in which the regime protects its facilities. but knowledge acquired by the Iranians, who cannot be erased), beyond the mirage weakened iranian regime, but not of a change of diet By the air, we can wonder where this war is leading us.

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Some warn against a larger regional conflict. The exhortations of Europeans. and their initiative of June 20 with the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi, were treated by contempt in weakened iranian regime, but not Washington and Jerusalem. The next day’s strikes were also an arm of honor against the European Union.

American turnaround

The American decision to engage openly alongside Israel in his war against Iran constitutes. a reversal. The United States had first watched over attacks on the night of June 12 to 13. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had reacted by taking note of Tel Aviv’s “unilateral action” against Tehran. and assuring that the United States was not not involved in these strikes. He said there was no support to Israel for this specific initiative.

But the tone has changed, real 180 degrees At the White House: one more. With his latest statements on change of diet And his exhortations to the “unconditional surrender” of the mullahs diet. Trump released his biggest bomb. Put on the sidelines. weakened iranian regime, but not the envoy Steve Witkoff and his diplomatic theater With the Iranians in mid-April in mid-June, which we had wanted to believe.

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The president hopes that his punctual demonstration will suffice. that he will not be drawn into one of these long asymmetrical conflicts where his predecessors have lost so much. But nothing weakened iranian regime, but not is less certain.

If, for example, Tehran reacts with real strikes, the American counterpart will be forced to reply. And the president could then put his finger in a known gear. The one who won several of his predecessors. whom he despises so much and that he tirelessly denounced for their endless wars.

A trap for Trump

Is Iran of the Mullahs ready to worsen its case by giving in to this reflex. certainly self-destructive, but which would also be a trap for Trump?

A hypothesis. in vogue in Washington and Jerusalem, claims that of these blows against the worn, corrupt, brutal and hated teheran regime, could become the spark of a collapse and a change of diet. Not by an invasion … but as a trigger.

Will these attacks from abroad accelerate the fall of the Islamic Republic. weakened iranian regime, but not or on the contrary will they provide it with a nationalist pretext and a final stay?

Because bombings could also, conversely, arouse a nationalist start in many Iranians … including many of those who hate Islamic dictatorship.

Case to follow. with high dramatic intensity, of a regional, even global scope, and which can unfortunately go in several directions.