CATL, the world’s n ° 1 of electric car batteries, announced the closure of its largest lithium mine in China, responsible for 6 % of world production. We take stock of the repercussions.
The development of electric and hybrid cars worldwide requires, inevitably, more and more batteries, and therefore lithium. A material manifestly abundant worldwide and which accompanied a continuous decrease in batteries … but a small border has just happened in China.
Indeed, Bloomberg has just announced the closure of the largest Chinese mine of the world leader in batteries, CATL. The markets panic, but the risk of a shortage should remain limited. We take stock of the situation.
Three months minimum stop
More specifically, the Jianxiawo mine, in the Jiangxi region, in the center of the country, is at total stop, as Catl confirmed. In question: the loss of its operating license, given by the Chinese government. The judgment should last at least three months, depending on the company, the time to regain it.
This judgment takes place in a context of overcapacity in the field of batteries in China, leaving fear of other temporary mines closures. Citigroup Inc analysts, cited by Blloberg, declare in a note: “We believe that this could be part of the government’s anti-regression initiative”stating that mines closings “Should help China reassess the price of its long -term strategic resources, and that the government can ensure that lithium is extracted and exploited in an appropriate and compliant manner”.
Announcement of a battery price increase?
Problem: this mine is crucial for CATL, since Bank of America estimates that it is responsible for 6 % of world production of lithium – other mines in the region, according to Bank of America, count for 5 % minimum.
Enough to make the markets shudder: competitors, both Chinese and Australian, see their actions jump … just as the price of lithium carbonate, the product that is found in batteries: its cash price increased by Monday August 11 in China, reaching 75,500 yuan (around 9,300 euros) per ton, the highest level since February 2025.
Concretely, should we expect a shortage of batteries? CATL, as a world leader in the sector, sells its cells to almost all brands; The Peugeot E-208, one example among many others, has so.
On this point, analysts all converge on the same conclusion: do not worry. “For CATL, we do not provide a significant operational impact on the production of batteries following the suspension of the Jiangxi mine”explains Eugene Hsiao, from Macquarie Capital.
On the other hand, this hunt for the overcapacity of the Chinese government could have an impact on the price of batteries. “The suspension of the mine arouses less concern for Catl than for the lithium supply chain as a whole, which could see its reduced capacity, and to know if it will be coordinated by measures of the Chinese government”continues Eugene Hsiao, joined by Zhang Weixin, analyst at China Futures Co: “If the disruption of production extend to other Yichun mines after September 30, the price of lithium could further increase. »»
Another hypothesis: this administrative closure could only be yet another pressure on the part of China, determined to prove that it holds the entire value chain of the electric car. We thus remember the cessation of rare earth export in May 2025, causing the stopping of several European factories, before a quick return to normal.
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