It looks like an impossible mission. How to find 40 billion euros for the 2026 budget? The contributions have abounded in recent weeks but the vagueness persists on the tracks that Prime Minister François Bayrou will retain on Tuesday. Pending the announcements of the head of government, at 4 p.m. on Tuesday, we come back to the main tracks mentioned in recent weeks in the public debate.
“The white year”
The hypothesis, which returns insistently, would consist in renewing certain expenses between 2025 and 2026, without increase. However, the expected resources of this savings deposit vary significantly depending on the perimeter retained. According to the Senate finance committee, the freezing between 2025 and 2026 of state expenditure on its budgetary missions (apart from the defense, the contribution to the EU budget and the debt burden) could bring back 10 billion euros. For the French Observatory for Economic Conditions (OFCE) and the Institute of Public Policy (PPI), a white year could save between 5.7 and 6 billion euros.
Disinder pensions
The track of an uninimation of retirement pensions in relation to inflation is gaining ground, reinforced by a proposal in this sense of the pension monitoring committee (CSR), and supported by several parliamentarians from the government camp. As part of a “white year”, refrain from indexing retirement pensions on inflation would earn 3.7 billion euros, according to the OFCE figures. In this equation in 2026, nearly 10 million households of which “the benchmark is retired” would see their disposable income reduced by several hundred euros, still according to the OFCE.
Reduce social protection
Several avenues have been put forward in recent months to reduce the social protection deficit (social security, unemployment insurance, additional pensions), in particular by health insurance which should experience a hole of 16 billion euros in 2025. It proposed in late June to save 3.9 billion euros in 2026 by improving the relevance of care, fighting against fraud, regulating prices, reinforcing the prevention and daily.
Unemployment insurance reform and public holidays
Already arousing controversy, a new tightening of unemployment insurance rules is looming, while Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday that he planned to finance the military effort by “more production and more activity”. What also rekindle speculation around an increase in working time or the removal of holidays.
Freeze the income tax scale
This would consist in not reassessing the thresholds of the different slices which usually are automatically adjusted each year to neutralize the effects of inflation. Without adjustment, so far non-taxable households will be subject to tax and others will see their level of taxation increase, a red cloth agitated by several political parties. At the beginning of 2025, the thresholds of the different slices had been reassessed, which had allowed 600,000 taxpayers not to become taxable. In 2026, the OFCE calculated that a freeze on the IR scale could bring in 1.2 billion euros, with an inflation hypothesis at 1.1 %.
Reform agencies and operators
The Senate estimated that reforming the operation of the “archipelago” of state operators and agencies, i.e. 434 operators, 317 advisory organizations and 1,153 national public organizations (such as ADEME – for ecological transition -, the organic agency, the National Sports Agency, etc.), would save 540 million euros over several years. But the government sees larger, targeting 2 to 3 billion euros in savings. Some agencies could be merged and certain cropped missions.
Limit public service expenses
Matignon exhorted at the end of April to control the increase in expenses concerning the payroll of the public service. A circular pointed out that the remuneration of the 5.8 million public officials cost 107 billion euros in 2024, up 6.7 %. Certain so -called “categorical” measures (concerning certain categories of civil servants) alone have contributed to inflating the payroll of 3.7 billion euros in 2024. The government could also activate the lever for employment reductions. The Minister of Economy Eric Lombard said in early June wanting to initiate the “drop in the number of civil servants”, while being careful not to specify the number.
The Senate recommends not to replace one retirement in two in the State Public Service [l’une des trois branches, à côté de l’hospitalière et de la territoriale]with 500 million hoped for. In 2025, after the abandonment of the abolition of 4,000 positions in the National Education, the draft budget amended by the Senate provided for the creation of 3,076 jobs for the State and the abolition of 812 positions within operators.
Tax the rich?
Other tracks are mentioned to improve public finances. Among them, that of “rationalizing” public aid to businesses, advocated by government spokesperson Sophie Primas. According to a senatorial commission of inquiry, these aids were 211 billion euros in 2023. Or even taxes the richest: those earning more than 250,000 euros per year must currently pay a contribution which guarantees a minimum tax level of 20 % (CRDH). But the left dreams of obtaining a “Zucman tax” (inspired by the French economist Gabriel Zucman) on the 1,800 “ultra-rich” taxpayers having more than 100 million euros in heritage, by taking 2 % per year of it, for an annual yield of 20 billion euros.
The idea of increasing the VAT to compensate for reductions in contributions weighing on work, that is to say a “social VAT”, is strongly rejected by the left and the national rally, the latter threatening the government with censorship if it were to be retained.
