« It is midnight !!! Billions of dollars in customs duties now flock to the United States of America ». Donald Trump welcomed this night of the entry into force of new American customs duties. Registration generally between 15 and 41 % on products imported into the United States, despite the main trade agreements concluded with Japan or the European Union.
Result, the average effective rate of customs duties on American products reaches almost 19 %, according to figures for ” budget lab From the University of Yale. Unheard of since 1933.
In the mind of Donald Trump, the objective of his commercial offensive is simple: to charge his business partners who, according to him, have “Pilled” et “Spolié” his country. And thus rebalance the trade balance. He also wishes to encourage companies to produce more on American territory to recreate jobs. But in fact, billions really go ” flock »To the country? Who really pays the invoice for customs duties?
The whole value chain is concerned
When the United States set up customs duties on products imported from a country, it is the American importers that pay the tax. And not the exporting country. “” Mechanically, the import tax must be paid by the importer, », Explained, in fact, to The platform A few days ago Ruben Nizard, economist at Coface.
The Trump administration has often argued that exporting countries were going to pay most of the customs tariffs and that the price increase in American consumers would be minimal. According to her, foreign companies would prefer not to increase their prices in order to maintain their market share and their competitiveness in the United States. An argument that can hold, but only for sectors where products can be easily replaced by Made in USA.
In reality, “It is very likely that this cost is distributed throughout the value chain” In the United States, completed Ruben Nizard. And at the end of this channel is … the American consumer. Business wholesalers or retailers have two possibilities: passing part or totaling the cost of the surcharge on their margin or, if not increase their prices. For 2025, the LAB budget of the University of Yale already anticipates inflation of 1.9 % in the United States and an average loss of income of 2,500 dollars per household.
This is also demonstrated by a research article from the Harvard Business School, ” Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and in Stores : Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy », Published in 2021 and which was often wrongly brandished by the Trump administration itself. According to him, in fine, It is the Americans who pay the bill. The paper thus studied the consequences of the customs duties implemented during the first term of Trump, in particular towards China. Conclusion of researchers: ” Customs duties have been passed almost entirely on import prices in the United States, which means that the incidence of customs duties is largely based on the United States ».
Billions for the country
Large American companies have even started to record losses due to customs duties. They preferred to touch their margin rather than the price. This is the case of Apple which records a cost of $ 1.1 billion for the current quarter. Nike figures a loss of almost 1 billion for 2026.
Nevertheless, Donald Trump is right about one thing: customs duties will report ” billions of dollars In the country. In early July, the secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, said that the United States had already cashed $ 100 billion in customs surcharges since January. And that it anticipates a gain of 300 billion by the end of the year.
This week, the president said that this money will serve ” above all to reimburse the debt [américaine]which will be very important “Reports CNN. “” But I think that it is also possible that we are giving up so much money that we can very well pay dividends to the American people “, He completed. A fair return of things since in the end, the Americans will have paid most of the note.
