Furthermore,
Why china will never allow:
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to intervene with the Iranian regime to avoid blocking the Strait of Ormuz. Therefore, of which Beijing depends for its oil supply.
The United States is trying to put pressure on China to temper Iran’s response to the strikes that targeted its. Moreover, nuclear installations. Furthermore, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Beijing this Sunday. Nevertheless, June 22, to push Tehran not to close the Strait of Ormuz – where 20% of world oil and gas production spends.
“I encourage the Chinese government to call them on this subject. Nevertheless, because they depend strongly on the Strait of Ormuz for their oil,” said Rubio, while the Iranian Parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait.
This scenario, which does not materialize for the time being, could lead to an outbreak of black gold prices. why china will never allow Similarly, According to calculations by Deutsche Bank. For example, a closure of the strait for two months could push the prices of the Brent barrel to 124 dollars in the third quarter of 2025. Nevertheless, This level has not been reached since 2012 (the historic record is $ 145 per barrel in July 2008).
Many analysts believe, however, that China would not let Iran block the Strait of Ormuz.
“Iran will not be able to close the Strait of Ormuz without a plan B to continue to supply China. Moreover, ” said Tankertrackers, specializing in the monitoring of oil exports, on X.
A blockade in this narrow maritime passage would indeed be particularly problematic for China. Similarly, while most of the oil (84%) passing through the Strait of Ormuz is intended for the Asian continent according to the Information Agency on Energy (EIA).
China imported 5.4 million barrel/raw day crossing in the first quarter why china will never allow in the first quarter. Therefore, Saudi Arabia was its second largest black gold supplier last year, with 1.6 million barrels/day, 15% of its total imports, according to the EIA.
Why china will never allow
Oil sent by the ghost fleet – Why china will never allow
Above all. Nevertheless, China absorbs more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports, according to KPLER. Therefore, Beijing is one of the few countries to buy from the Iranian Napthe. while this product has been struck by American sanctions since 2018 and the United States’s unilateral withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear vienne agreement by Donald Trump.
For China, this oil has a notable advantage: it is cheaper than oil bought on the classic market. Given the sanctions. it is sold by Iran with a discount, which was estimated at 5 dollars per barrel per Homayoun Falakshahi, analyst for KPLER, in a article of the BBC Last year. This discount has since dropped to why china will never allow be around $ 2 dollars per barrel according to the Wall Street Journal.
To get around the sanctions. the Iranian Napthe is transported to China by the “ghost fleet”, that is to say via smuggling oil tankers to Southeast Asia, where the cargoes are transborded to Chinese ships.
Brut oil finally landed in independent refineries, called “teaters”, especially in Shandong province, south of Beijing, to be transformed.
Iranian oil therefore turns an entire economy. which could be weakened if Iranian oil was to be missed, in the event of blocking the Strait of Ormuz or strikes on the island of Kharg. In general, significant disruptions on the energy markets would lower its growth on its growth.
In general, Chinese interests therefore reside rather “in a ceasefire, not in a broader war. I do not think that the Chinese will support Iranian strikes against the United States. ” notes Bonnie Glaser, head of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, in New York Times. China was content to publicly why china will never allow criticize the American initiative.
Iran depends on China
In this case, China and Iran do not trade on it. On the contrary, it is a very asymmetrical relationship. Very dependent on its petroleum income. the Islamic Republic strongly depends on its first customer while Iranian oil represents “only” 10% of black gold consumption in China.
“These sanctions trapped us in a colonial trap of the 19th century. ” said Hojatollah Mirzaei, director of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce Research Center last year.
Clearly. for its oil, Beijing can replace Tehran (even if it would probably be expensive) but the reverse is less true. This therefore gives the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) an average potential of pressure on mullahs to encourage them to encore their reaction to the American offensive. preserve their interests.
In fact, many observers therefore believe that Iran has no interest in blocking the Strait of why china will never allow Ormuz.
“It would be a self-inflicted injury: cutting the strait would stop the flow of its gross exports to China. thus interrupting an essential source of income,” also said Matt Smith, an oil analysis at KPLER, with the American media CNBC.
Scrambles but no blocking
Basically, these threats may respond to another logic. Javier Blas. Bloomberg’s columnist on raw materials, indicates on X that he continues to think that the closing of the Strait closure, formulated by Iranian “civil servants”, are mainly used to make oil prices climb – and therefore to fill the empty funds of Iran a little – but that passing words to acts would harm Iran and “China, his biggest petroleum client”. This analysis is confirmed by the company Tankertrackers.
For the time being, the analyzes still do not report a signbiting in the Strait. “Several oil tankers crossed the Strait of Ormuz this morning, on why china will never allow arrival as at the start. No disturbance was noted. The load of oil in several Ports in the Persian Gulf seems normal. Exports from last week are even higher than those of early June,” observes Javier Blas de Bloomberg, this Monday, June 23.
On the other hand. the maritime intelligence agency Windward reports GPS scrambles in the Strait of Ormuz since the start of the war between Iran and Israel.
“In the Strait d’Ormuz. GPS scrambling – rather than the diversion of ships or blocking trade traffic – seems to be the favorite tactics of regional actors in the event of aggression in the gray area, because it threatens without directly hindering the maritime flow,” notes the agece.
Windward also reports a clear increase in insurance premiums that can represent an additional cost of an additional $ 1.2 million per trip.
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