Will an asteroid will soon hit the earth? A scientific study has looked into the issue

Scientists have recently calculated the “chances” that a large asteroid (more than 140m) affects the earth in the more. Moreover, less close future, and This probability is not so weak that you don’t think so.

Many threatening asteroids in our solar system – Will asteroid will soon hit

Asteroids have been talked about a lot in recent months. However, especially following the discovery of 2024 yr4. However, This asteroid. Moreover, with an estimated diameter between 40 and 90 meters, was indeed detected for the first time in December 2024 by the Atlas system and quickly panicked the media, the first calculations of its future trajectory raising fears of a risk of impact on earth on December 22, 2032.

Fortunately, thanks to additional observations and again calculations carried out by scientists, the probability of impact on earth has been clearly reduced since, rising today at 0.001%or a chance in 100,000, which is relatively low. Spatial agencies nevertheless continue to watch out This potentially threatening celestial object. in particular in anticipation of its next passage near the earth in 2028.

What about other geocroisters asteroids, in other words asteroids who can get close to earth orbit in the future? Several million of these celestial objects are indeed present in our solar system. could potentially present a risk for the land in the more or less close future.

In an attempt to assess this risk. a team of researchers from the University of will asteroid will soon hit Massachusetts has decided to Simulate orbits of five million geocroisters of a diameter greater than 140 metersin order to estimate the frequency of their potential impacts on earth over a period of 150 years.

A risk of unwanted impact?

According to their results published in the journal The Planetary Science Journal. an impact of an asteroid of 140m or more would occur on average once every 11,000 years on earth. Thus. the probability of potentially catastrophic meteoritic impact on earth is higher than that of being struck by lightning (A chance in about one million), even if it remains generally quite weak.

The study has also looked at the consequences for the population of such impacts. These will asteroid will soon hit vary greatly according to several factors: the size of the object in question. its speed et The affected areas by impact. Indeed. according to the researchers, an asteroid from 140 to 200m in diameter striking the ocean would probably cause no victim While the impact of a similar size object on a populated area could affect up to a million people.

The researchers also highlight the fact that. even if a geocroiser had to hit the earth, ” There is always a good chance that most people will survive if it was a small object ». It is estimated that an asteroid impact could have planetary consequences from a diameter of approximately 1km.

A geocroiser object over 10km in diameter impacting the earth could be capable of generating mass extinction from our planet. As a benchmark. we can for example take the case of the asteroid having eradicated the dinosaurs 66 million will asteroid will soon hit years ago, which had A diameter included 10 and 80km according to estimates. Nevertheless, the chances of asteroid impacts of this type are ofone every 100 million years.

According to scientists in charge of this study. these new estimates do not aim to scare the population but on the contrary to encourage political decision -makers to “ grant priority to planetary defense and encourage the financing of detection and deviation missions of asteroids if necessary ». Indeed. as mentioned above, even an object of a hundred meters in diameter could have disastrous consequencesespecially if he came to impact the earth at a large city.

Will asteroid will soon hit

Article reference:

What are the risks that a massive asteroid crashes on will asteroid will soon hit earth? A study respondsGeo (19/19/2055), Juliette Vignaud