Dow +0,08%, S&P 500 -0,29%, Nasdaq -0,40%, Russell -0,55%, SOX -2,26%, Eurostoxx +0,25%, SMI +0,6%.
The stock market caravan is currently on the ground discovered, it lends the flank to potential attacks from all sides but nothing seems able to curb its imperturbable progression.
The themes of the moments do not change, we finish dissecting the quarterly results of societies, we can closely observe the evolution of interest rates, customs duties and war in Ukraine. The weekly actions assessment is once again positive. The trap set at the end of the week by the American production price index has been easily avoided, the indices are growing almost everywhere around the globe, special mention to small capitalizations, the Russell2000 (RTY) continues to catch up and outperform its peers by progressing by 3.1% against 0.9% in S & P500 (SPX) and 0.4% in Nasdaq100 (NDX). In Europe, the main indices earn approximately 2% over the week, the Swiss SMI increased by 1.75% despite the infamous 39% customs duties.
This week that begins is interesting, many stakeholders are still absent on vacation but the news does not take it and we will have to digest macro (indices of purchasing directors (PISS) everywhere, inflation in the euro zone and especially the minutes of the Fed). On the societies side, we will focus among others on the results of Walmart, Home Depot and Target, before turning to Jackson Hole at the end of the week, where almost all the central bankers on the planet will come together, Jerome Powell’s speech on this occasion is particularly expected. In this regard, looking at the predictions of the Fed Funds this morning, we see that their enthusiasm around a drop in rate by the Fed on September 17 has clearly cooled. This morning we are 85%, shortly before the American PPI it was 106%. Forget geopolitics and what revolves around, in the long term it is the Fed and nothing that it will set the tone for the market as to the management to take.
However, the speakers are probably waiting for accommodating signals from the boss of the Federal Reserve this Friday. So certainly, a positive result from Washington DC today could provide short -term support to the odds, but the Fed remains the decisive engine.
Friday’s trading session sees the clues making a field chouia. Note that a Golden Cross occurs on the SPX, that its podium of the day consists of health, real estate and communication services. The exchange volumes are stable, the negative breadth in a 3 for 2 ratio on the SPX and the NDX, volatility grabbed 1.7%, the VIX returns to 15.09, it still sees its main support at 12.70. On the bond market side, the yield of 10 years tested its support by 4.20% – 4.18% successfully last week, it is back at 4.29%, its resistance is 4.35%, it is that its mobile averages currently go to 50 and 100 days. As for the dollar, it remains technically low. The dollar index (DXY) deals at 97.85, it fails to iron above 98.00, its 50 days is 98.11, next support 97.10. The EUR/USD pair started a big fight with the level of 1,1700, it is kept in mind its support of 1.1637 (50 days) and its top in session from July 1 to 1.1829.
We look at the tops and flops of the past week with in particular Intel, which leaps by 23% after Bloomberg revealed discussions between the Trump administration and the chip giant for a possible state entry in its capital, a stage that is part of the semiconductor mega-user project planned in Ohio. Reddit increased by 14% and still benefits from its exceptional results published in early August, the support of artificial intelligence proposing action to new heights after past fears linked to its dependence on Google. Commerzbank wins 8%, continuing its positive trajectory thanks to solid half -yearly results which allow it to raise its annual forecasts, while it remains under the threat of Unicredit. Airbus climbs 6% in a context where Boeing sees its deliveries diving 20% in July, confirming the decline in the American aircraft manufacturer in front of its European competitor. Orsted unscrews by 32% with the announcement of a large capital increase intended to strengthen its finances, accompanied by transfers of onshore activities in Europe and decreased prospects. Finally, Straumann fell 6.8% due to the vigor of the Swiss franc, its exposure to the United States and China and a sluggish North American market, even if growth in Asia, especially in China, brings a positive counterweight.
The barrel of WTI Light Crude does not succeed, it languishes in the morning at 62.95 dollars. The oil market is pulled down by the prudent prospects of the International Energy Agency, which anticipates a marked swelling of stocks by the end of the year and in 2026 under the effect of an excess global offer. Consumption progresses, but much slower than production, especially since OPEC+ revives its pumps. To this imbalance is added the uncertainty around the meeting between the American president and Putin: a cease-fire agreement in Ukraine could lead to a relaxation of American sanctions and promote the arrival of additional Russian crude volumes, while a failure would reinforce the punitive measures on the contrary. In addition, the fragility of the Chinese economy, illustrated by the withdrawal of industry and retail sales, accentuates doubts about the future vigor of global demand.
Zelensky can end the conflict almost immediately if he wishes, says who you know on Truth Social. The leader indicates in a message published on X that he hopes that, with the help of his allies, Moscow can be forced to real peace. Russia has triggered the war and has to end it, he adds. Emmanuel Macron, Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer will be part of the participants in the meeting in the White House.
On the macro-economic menu this Monday, the New York Fed activity index and the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) real estate index.
The Novo Nordisk Wegovy obtains an accelerated authorization from the FDA for the treatment of Mash liver disease. Tesla would grant discounts up to British rental companies up to 40% to sell its vehicles, according to Times. JD.com buys the Hong Kong food distributor Kai Bo Food Supermarket.
It is this evening that the meeting between the President of the United States and his Ukrainian counterpart will take place, at 7:15 p.m. in Geneva. European leaders will follow at 9:00 p.m.
This morning and this morning in Asia this morning, the clues treat in dispersed order. Tokyo increased by 0.77%at the bell, Hong Kong raises 0.09%, Shanghai rises by 0.85%, Seoul fell by 1.5%and the NIFTY50 takes 1.12%. The future SPX treats slightly, Europe opens up 0.4%.
The gold seems to be in the fossilization phase, the ounce deals this morning at 3352 dollars.
