Because this 2 % standard is already exceeded … this Tuesday and this Wednesday, in The Hague, the member countries of NATO, driven behind the back by the United States, should agree on a new CAP to follow. We are talking about going up to 3.5 % in “pure” military expenditure, a figure supplemented by 1.5 % in related expenses (cybersecurity, infrastructure, etc.). Nothing but these 3.5 % represent for Belgium an annual budget of around 22 billion euros. Colossal.
Defense: NATO agreement on the 5% GDP threshold
Divergence Mr-Engagues
This constraint leads to the majority Arizona, which has the delicate role of replacing Belgium on good rails in terms of defense – but also on the budgetary level. In order to finance all this, strong differences could destabilize the coalition. Particularly between the MR and the committed, the conceptions come up against.
In Free From the weekend, Maxime Prévot, vice-Prime Minister committed and Minister of Foreign Affairs, said he was ready to blow up taboos. Among other things, that of lifting a kind of war tax. Even if the prospect of using tax lever hardly enchants it, faced with the geopolitics that gets carried away, political realism imposes, according to him, a subtle dosage of savings, new recipes and debt.
Maxime Prévot opens the way to new taxes to finance military spending: “no more taboo is possible”
Wilch refuse any tax
But, Monday morning, the president of the MR, Georges-Louis Bouchez, rejected this scenario. For the Liberal, the fiscal option cannot be retained in the future. It will be necessary to act on expenses. “”With the MR, there will be no more tax, He assured on X (ex-Twitter). Neither for the defense nor for the general budget. We can no longer tax the most taxed country in the world! The problem of Belgium is not a revenue problem, but of expenses.“
The tone is set. This legislature (and the following) will be subject to the budgetary imperative and the choices of society it will imply. Reduce state lifestyle or increase taxes? Inflect our huge public debt? Or all this at a time? The five Arizona partners cannot agree on a capital gains tax at the expected yield of 500 million per year, we dare not imagine the intensity of discussions on the trajectory allowing to rise to 22 billion military credits. This annual amount should only be reached at 2034/2035, but all the same … The current federal executive will have to initiate the budget movement.
The arbitrations promise to be painful. So far as to threaten this government? Let’s not be too fast in work. However, little by little, the germs of a future crisis are developing. Within the federal majority, Vooruit has already made important efforts. In exchange, the Flemish socialists require the adoption of a capital gains tax that is not just facade and suspect the N-VA and the MR to drag their feet. Conner Rousseau, the party president, has already threatened to have Arizona fall if he did not get satisfaction. Faced with this intransigence, Georges-Louis Bouchez has now closed the tax door for this legislature and the next one (as long as Arizona was renewed in 2029, of course).
Small Hope at NATO
Painful arbitration, tens of billions to find in addition to the budgetary effort which, at the start, was already substantial … A left-right shock in sight? On the internal political front, the Prime Minister will have to use all his talent as a chief conciliator to maintain his ship afloat. On the international front, Belgium will have to put all its diplomatic weight in the balance at the NATO summit in order to alleviate the requested effort. Other states are also reluctant to jeopardize their socio-economic well-being to buy more weapons. Against promises of purchases (from F-35, in particular), the Americans could be more flexible than announced. This would reduce the magnitude of Wever’s government.
