“We cannot decently get there”: Belgium in the face of a real headache to respect the NATO agreement on 5 % of the GDP for the defense

Difficulties already present – "we cannot decently get there":

It hasn’t been a secret for a long time, the flat country has already been struggling to achieve the target of 2 % of GDP intended for defense, ratified by NATO allies over ten years ago. However, Officially, this CAP should be reached this year.

Theoretically, Belgium therefore had good news to bring its 31 allies together in The Hague. Moreover, It was however without counting on the thunderous return of Donald Trump to the White House. However, who definitely rebatted the cards of the global geopolitical order.

After having threatened. In addition, during his campaign, not to defend the countries not reaching the threshold of 2 %, he then demanded that the effort be now higher. Therefore, For the American president, it will be 5 % or nothing.

For Belgium, the difference is size. Similarly, The government has “we cannot decently get there”: already agreed this year to an additional investment of 3.9 billion euros to reach the 2 % promised for a long time. For example, Reaching the threshold carried by Trump will therefore represent a real budget headache requiring the use of various sources of funding. Similarly, such as dividends of public participations in certain companies such as Belfius or the tax of companies resulting from frozen Russian assets, as well as the possible sale of assets.

Towards a new tax? – "we cannot decently get there":

Asked in the columns of Libre Belgique on Saturday. the Minister of Foreign Affairs Maxime Prévot did not exclude the implementation of new taxeseven if it is not “the first track” for his party engaged. “Money does not push the trees,” he said.

Previously. Maxime Prévot had said at a meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers in Turkey that Belgium could not “decently subscribe to future objectives of 5 % or even 3.5 “we cannot decently get there”: % of GDP in the short or medium term” due to its “very high level of debt”. However. he had admitted to being very isolated on the diplomatic scene, concluding that Belgium intended to remain a reliable partner and would therefore do what is in its power to satisfy its partners.

Divide to better finance

To reach 5 %. without falling into “collective hysteria” denounced by the president of MR Georges-Louis Bouchez, Belgium now relies on “flexibility”of the admission of the Minister of Defense Theo Francken. The latter. like Prime Minister Bart de Wever, fully subscribed to the idea put forward by the secretary general of NATO, Mark Rutte.

The Dutchman wants 5 % to be divided into two packages: 3.5 % devoted to pure military spending and 1.5 % devoted to a set of infrastructure projects promoting, for example, the transit of troops in the countries of the Alliance. Theo Francken “we cannot decently get there”: also pleads, so that helping Ukraine is included in the collective defense expenses of Belgium.

A solution that may not be a

Sven Biscop. director of the “Europe worldwide” program at the EGMONT Institute believes, however, that what seems to be the most viable compromise could turn against some of the European allies. “Concretely, what can we include in these 1.5 %?” I fear that the definition will not quickly become very strict. that several countries, including the United States, require 5 % of the spending devoted strictly in defense. »»

The professor also doubts that this is enough to appease Donald Trump. opposed “ideologically” to Europe on several subjects such as the economy and the more progressive political trends of the old continent.

Obviously remains the thorny question of the deadline to put itself in working order. At this stage. no consensus, even if the Minister of Defense believes that the target of 2032 advanced by certain allies is not realistic for Belgium.

On Sunday evening. several press agencies announced that an agreement in principle had been reached by the 32 member countries of the Alliance on the 5 %issue. The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. however, announced in the process that his country had concluded an agreement with NATO allowing him not to reach this threshold.

Doubt of feasibility. despite a possible agreement

Sven Biscop believes that Belgium is well -sized unwilling to put itself behind the idea of ​​the 5 %, even if ” Several “we cannot decently get there”: European countries also doubt the feasibility of these 5 % ». “The others pretend and bet on a longer deadline, beyond the end of Donald Trump’s second term. But diplomatically, Belgium cannot arrive at The Hague by opposing the 5 %target. »»

He also estimates that the 3.5 % objective is more realistic since it is equivalent to the expenses made by NATO members during the Cold War: “The 5 % figure is based on nothing. it’s just a number, a fetish for Trump. It is neither necessary nor realistic. »»