A similar volume of liquefied natural gas also passed through it, mainly from Qatar. These volumes of oil and gas passing through Ormuz then took 80 % the management of Asian markets, still according to the IAI. That is to say the crucial character of this passage 167 kilometers long and barely 39 kilometers wide, in its narrowest place – barely more than its equivalent of Pas de Calais, in the Channel.
“It would be another terrible error”: could oil prices flambé in the event of the Strait of Ormuz by Tehran?
Blocking threats
To cross the Strait of Ormuz coming from the Gulf of Oman, you must first sail full north, between the Omanaise Peninsula of Musandam clad in its fjords and its coves and the still steep coasts of Iran. Then, we turn a port, head southwest, leaving the Iranian islands to starboard, including Ormuz and Qeshm. In one sense as in the other, 3,400 commercial ships, on average, pass the Madiq Hourmouzas the Arabs call it. Due to the shallow waters of Ormuz, the boats follow a central navigation corridor with a width of two naval miles (3.7 kilometers). This one adjoins, in its northern part, the territorial waters of Iran, off the coast of the province of Hormozgan and its important commercial port of Bandar Abbas.
With such a position, the Islamic Republic has never gave up its temptation for exclusive security control of maritime trade through the Strait. However, since 1975, an agreement has given joint surveillance of this free movement to the Sultanate of Oman and Iran. As for the fifth American fleet, based in Bahrain, in the heart of the Gulf, it has also watched the grain since 1995. Washington and Tehran, with knives drawn since the Islamic revolution of 1979, had many clashes there. In 1988, at the end of the Iran-Iraq war, the US Navy had destroyed two Iranian drilling platforms then mistakenly shot an Iranian airliner above Ormuz. Since then, Tehran has regularly brandished the threat of blocking traffic.
Is the “worst scenario that could happen” for Europe after American attacks in Iran likely?
Loaded sea mines
This pressure lever that can be activated in the event of a crisis, however, has never prevented Iran from harassment, or even the arranged ships in or near the Strait – as was the case three times in 2023 and 2024 – by resorting to the rapid stars of its revolution guards. During the twelve day war last June, between Israel and Iran, Tehran was clearly preparing the blocking of the Strait of Ormuz. Shortly after the first Israeli bombings on Iran on June 13, US intelligence detected that Iranian soldiers had charged seafood mines on ships. This confidential information revealed by an anonymous source after the conflict, on July 1, seem to indicate that the Islamic Republic has seriously considered the option of closing this maritime route by having the mines in the Strait. This would have considerably disrupted trade and financial markets. Worse, an intervention by the fifth fleet could also have aggravated the conflict.
Another element accredits the blocking scenario. On June 22, when the United States had just bombed three of the main Iranian nuclear sites, the Islamic Consultative Assembly (the Iranian Parliament) voted a bill authorizing the blocking of Ormuz. According to Iranian television, the Supreme National Security Council had only to give the green light. The peace proposal made by Washington two days later cut short these presumed Iranian inclinations. In the analysis of their information, the United States has also considered that the authorization of the Parliament and the loading of the sea mines on Iranian boats could have constituted a cunning of Iran to encourage the opponent to prudence.
“It is for this reason that Donald Trump had advised Israel not to attack Iran”
