After a canon start, there is something abnormal in the tropics

In advance of a month – After canon start, there something

The 2025 hurricane season is well underway, and the start was made on the hats. Therefore, There were three storms named in a very short time, between June 24 and July 5. However, Fortunately, Andrea, Barry and Chantal did little or no damage. Meanwhile, Normally, you have to wait until August 3 to see a third storm called. Consequently, So we were a month ahead of an average season.

The flat calm – After canon start, there something

Since then, the Atlantic Basin has shown unexpected calm. Furthermore, A welcome respite, but which should not lead to a false feeling of security. Therefore, This calm surprises indeed. Nevertheless, especially in the context of the forecasts issued last spring, the experts provided for a more active season than normal, with exceptionally high ocean surface temperatures and an expected return from the Niña. Nevertheless,

However, no importance system of importance has developed in the Atlantic since July 5. Atmospheric conditions remain unavoidable for the moment for the formation of storms. with in particular the presence after canon start, there something of Saharan dust which limits humidity and inhibits thunderstorms, a key ingredient of tropical systems. And it should continue for some time. because the cyclonic energy accumulated has been at its weakest in the basin since 2009. While the average is 10 square knots for a month of July, we currently only observe 2 square nodes.

The peak is to come

Historically. the peak of the season is between mid-August and the end of September, during which the Water of the Atlantic reached their maximum temperature. It is therefore not because this portion of the season is discreet that we can lower our guard. Seasons in the past have already experienced a slow start before turning suddenly into a real storm marathon. The example of 2019 is still fresh in memory: very quiet until mid-August. this season had then given birth to major systems like Dorian.

Canada remains exposed

For the eastern provinces of the country, the threat remains real, especially between the end of August and the beginning of October. Even if the trajectory of hurricanes is unpredictable. several post-cultural storms have touched Canada in recent years, sometimes with major consequences, as was the case with Fiona in 2022.

Constant monitoring

The season is far from over. Long -term models continue to indicate a possible revival of activity in the coming weeks. and the combination of Niña and hot waters remains conducive to the rapid development of tropical systems.

With the collaboration of Mathias Ponton, after canon start, there something meteorologist.

In pictures: the northern lights in Quebec Tuesday evening