Many governments are negotiating trade agreements on Thursday a few hours from the August 1st date set by Donald Trump, which has imposed new customs duties aimed at punishing or promoting its main business partners.
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The Trump administration uses customs duties as a means of economic pressure but also political against several business partners, notably Canada, Brazil and India.
South Korea, a key to Washington in terms of security, has slipped in extremis on the walking train, obtaining an agreement on a customs right of 15 % for its exports to the United States, is much less than the 25 % that Trump had previously threatened to impose.
This rate is equivalent to the taxes set in the trade agreements concluded by the United States with Japan and the European Union.
The South Korean presidency said that customs duties on cars, one of Seoul’s main export products, would also remain 15 %.
Taiwan, threatened with a 32 % tax and possible new customs duties on semiconductors, pillar of the island’s economy, said it had reached “a certain consensus” with the United States, without providing details on the agreed rate.
As of August 1, a certain number of surcharge must be applied to most of the United States business partners, some, some, sectoral, very heavy, like the 50 % planned on copper.
And this time, after two breaks, no new postponement.
“Everything will be done on Friday,” said trade secretary Howard Lunick. “August 1 is the day we put in place these rates and they will no longer be subject to discussion afterwards.”
For around 80 countries, including the 27 of the European Union (EU), the customs duties applied to their products should therefore increase on Friday, to be between 11 % and 50 %, depending on the origin of the products.
Impact on the economy
The EU, Japan, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines have already agreed with the White House, with the key to lower surcharges than those initially announced.
But most of these agreements actually concern negotiation frameworks, not signed formal texts, the White House showing itself voluntarily blurred to highlight its successes.
European products should be taxed up to 15 %, compared to 20 %scheduled for early April by the US administration, after even being threatened for 30 %.
Brazil should be the most affected, with 50 % surcharge in retaliation for the prosecution engaged against his ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, accused of an attempted coup after his defeat in the presidential election of 2022, a “witch hunt”, according to his ally Donald Trump.
The tenant of the White House signed a decree in this sense on Wednesday, effective from August 6.
Indian products will be the subject of 25 % customs duties upon arrival in the United States from August 1, but a “penalty” will be added for the purchase of Russian oil by India according to the American president.
The latter said on Thursday that Canada’s decision to recognize Palestine as a state in September would make any future trade agreement “very difficult”.
The negotiations, suspended in June following the establishment by Ottawa of a tax on digital services, took place in a tense diplomatic climate, supplied in particular by its provocative remarks on Canada as potential “51st American state”.
The impact of customs duties continues to worry economists, who see them weighing not only on inflation, which could go back to 3 %, but also on American growth, expected less than 1 % in the second half.
What encourage the federal reserve (Fed) to prudence, to the chagrin of Donald Trump. On Wednesday, the American central bank maintained its unchanged rates and its boss, Jerome Powell, seemed to grow further the possibility of a future decline.