(Washington) The job market has clearly weakened in recent months in the United States, according to official data published on Friday, displaying much less job creations than initially estimated, an observation likely to increase pressure on the central bank.
The first world economy created 73,000 jobs in July, less than expected by analysts, according to the monthly report of the Labor Department.
Above all, job creations during the months of May and June were strongly revised downwards. The corrected figures (19,000 in May and 14,000 in June) are displayed at the lowest since the Pandemic of Cavid-19.
The corrections are “much superior to normal”, it is noted in the report. 258,000 job creations have evaporated statistics over these two months.
Employment figures are “manipulated for political purposes,” said President Donald Trump on Friday, unhappy with the data published earlier during the day, and calling for a “immediate” dismissal of a statistical service framework.
“I have just learned that the” employment figures “of our country are made by a person appointed by Joe Biden, Dr Erika Mcentarfer, […] who faked employment figures before the election to increase the chances of Kamala’s victory ” [Harris, sa rivale à la dernière élection présidentielle]he wrote on his Truth Social network.
The American executive continues to assert that the economy is roaring, while insistently calling the Federal Reserve (Fed) to support it more.
Job creations have concentrated in a reduced number of sectors (health and social services), while jobs have continued to be destroyed at the level of the federal state, in accordance with the vow of the Republican government.
The federal apparatus has 84,000 fewer jobs since January, a month in which Donald Trump was invested for a second term.
The unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.2 %, compared to 4.1 % in June.
New deal
Analysts expected to see the American labor market, so far considered to be close to full employment, to crack under the effect of the economic slowdown induced by the protectionist offensive of Donald Trump.
They were surprised by the magnitude of the changes, “like a signal from a planet very different from that we knew yesterday”, in the words of Carl Weinberg, economist at HFE.
“It is a report that changes the situation. The labor market is quickly deteriorating, ”reacts in a note, the economist of the Navy Federal Credit Union bank, Heather Long.
In total, the United States “created an average of 35,000 jobs in the past three months,” she said, adding that the Federal Reserve had “seriously considering a drop in rates in September” to support the economy.
Investor projections on the future level of the Central Bank guidelines immediately changed. They are more to bet on a drop in rates at the September meeting, which reduced borrowing rates of the federal state and the dollar.
Heather Long considers that it becomes urgent to lift the uncertainties surrounding the government’s protectionist offensive: “The more this price instability will last, the more this context of low recruitment risks turning into layoffs”, she press.
Wait to see more clearly
On Wednesday, the Fed left its guiding rates unchanged for the fifth time in a row, its president Jerome Powell believing that it could still afford to see more clearly as for the economic repercussions of customs duties.
Two of the 12 members of the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) expressed their disagreement.
Friday, before the opening of Wall Street and the publication of employment figures, these dissident governors published press releases explaining their position.
They consider that it would have been necessary to act quickly, by lowering the rates, rather than waiting to attend the deterioration of economic activity and the conditions of employment.
A drop in rates would have “protected preventively” the economy and the labor market, argues governor Michelle Bowman.
His colleague Christopher Waller considered that the wait -and -see approach to the Fed was “excessively cautious”.
President Donald Trump, who tirelessly claims a decrease in guiding rates, treated his Truth Jerome Powome social network on Friday morning from “stubborn stupid”.
“If he continues to refuse” to lower the rates, the other Fed officials “must take control,” he wrote, as often in capital letters.
According to Jamie Cox, from the Harris Financial group, “Powell will regret having left the rates unchanged this week”. The Fed, he adds, “will have to lower the rates in September and it could be half a point at once to make up for lost time”.