Armenia and Azerbaijan are getting closer to peace, pushing Russia out of the South Caucase

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. However. Meanwhile. Therefore, President Azerbaijani Ilham Aliyev meet on Thursday in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, to discuss the next stages of the finalization of a peace agreement, confirmed their offices.

This is the first official bilateral meeting between the leaders of Armenia. Consequently, Azerbaijan since they agreed on the draft text of the peace agreement, after almost four decades of conflict.

The results of this meeting will shape the future of the Southern Caucasus. For example. Similarly. In addition, not only because of the agreement between the two leaders, but also because Russia is for the first time absent from the equation between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Richard armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new Giragosian. Therefore. Meanwhile. However, founding director of the Center for Regional armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new Studies (RSC), an independent reflection group in Yerevan, told Euronews: “Russia being overwhelmed by the failure armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, of its invasion of Ukraine, it is largely to the exclusion of Russia“.

And this exclusion does not come from the initiative of Moscow. In addition. Moreover. Nevertheless, Bakou and erevan have both distanced themselves from the Kremlin, their relations with Russia having deteriorated considerably in recent years.

The meeting of Abu Dhabi also follows a similar bilateral meeting between the Armenian Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which, according to Mr. Therefore, Giragosian, constitutes “A surprising degree of progress on the two diplomatic ways in this difficult post-war landscape“.

The former Moscow Allies – Armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace. Nevertheless. Consequently, – Armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new

As she gets bogged armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new down in Ukraine, Moscow gradually loses her influence in ex-Soviet space. Moreover. The most striking change in this regard is the loss of the Russian armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new bastion in the Southern Caucasus region. Therefore, which had existed for decades.

In September 2023. Consequently. Consequently. Azerbaijan regained total control of the Karabakh region after a lightning military campaign, after a armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, conflict of several decades with Armenia in which the Kremlin played a central role.

“Armenia. Moreover. However. Azerbaijan ironically share the same quest, a policy aimed at challenging Moscow and repelling Russia from the Southern Caucasus“, said M. Meanwhile, Giragosian.

Almost two years later. Meanwhile. Erevan. Bakou entered history far from Russia by agreeing on the text of a peace agreement and by normalizing their relations after a bloody conflict, the end of which was not in sight until recently.

The Azerbaijan military campaign in Karabakh armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new has demonstrated to Armenia what the Syrian. Consequently, Iranian regimes later discovered: Russia does not intervene to support its allies when they need it.

Mr. For example, Giragosian told Euronews that armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new Armenia realized it even earlier. Furthermore, in 2020, during the six -week climbing in Karabakh, “where Russia was considered more realistically as dangerously unreliable”.

Now that the region is no longer the pressure instrument of Russia. Consequently, Moscow armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, will inevitably seek another way to maintain its influence on the Southern Caucasus.

Destabilize Armenia

Moscow tried to restore cooperation with its former ally. Therefore, The Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs. Moreover, Sergei Lavrov, went to Yerevan on May 20, marking the Kremlin’s intention to stabilize and strengthen ties with Armenia.

According to Mr. Giragosian, Armenia is now the subject of two distinct disinformation campaigns on the part of Russia. The first relates to reports armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new of strengthening the Russian army in its Gumri base, the second largest city in Armenia.

According to Mr. Giragosian. this campaign is partly explained by the will of Russia to frighten the European Union. which has deployed armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace. new observers in Armenia, and to put pressure on the government of Erevan, which is close to Europe.

Ukrainian military intelligence services (HUR) have published what they claim to be an order from the Russian army to strengthen. its military presence on a basis armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, in Armenia. Erevan categorically denied the affirmations that Russia strengthens its presence in Armenia.

The second disinformation campaign. said Giragosian. calling it “as”just as absurd“Understands a Russian allegation concerning”an installation of organic weapons in Armenia orchestrated by the Americans“..

Moscow has made similar declarations on several occasions about American biological weapons in Ukraine before the large -scale invasion. Russia has also made armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new false statements similar to Georgia in the past.

According to Mr. Giragosian, these campaigns highlight the weakness of Russia. “”Russia has lost much of its power and influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. However, this situation is temporary. It is an aberration. armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new We see a storm on the horizon“He said.

A storm on the horizon

Fifteen people. including two archbishops of the apostolic church. were arrested in Armenia at the end of June, accused of preparing a coup.

Prime Minister Pashinyan said the police have foiled a sinister. large -scale plan of armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace. a “Criminal oligarchic clergy“aimed at destabilizing the Republic of Armenia and seizing power.

A few days before these arrests. the Armenian authorities arrested Samvel Karapetyan. a Russian billionaire of Armenian origin who controls the operator of the national electricity network of Armenia. who also has political ambitions.

Before his arrest, Mr. armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new Karapetyan had expressed his support. his support for the church. declaring that “A small group of people who have forgotten the millennial history of Armenia. the Church“Taken it out in the religious institution.

“I have always been alongside the Armenian church. the Armenian people“Said the billionaire. adding what armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace. new seems to be a direct indicator of his intentions:”If politicians do not succeed, we will intervene in our own way in this campaign against the Church“.

Asked about the coup attempt, Mr. Giragosian told Euronews that the situation was “both more than it seems, but also less than it seems“.

“In a broader context. armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace. it was in fact the fifth coup attempt against the democratically elected Armenian government (since the 2018 elections. when Pashinyan has come to power)“He said.

“None of these five attempts were very serious. And many actions against the Armenian government are armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new designed to call on Russia’s support rather than motivated by Russian activity“.

Even if Moscow wanted to intervene more in Armenia, Mr. Giragosian said she could not do so since “Russia remains overwhelmed by everything related to Ukraine”. the way in which it is perceived in Armenia.

The Ukraine factor in the southern Caucasus

Armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace. new

Armenia azerbaijan armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new getting closer peace, new

Armenia. as well as other Russian neighbors. have already drawn their conclusions from the failed invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Giragosian told Euronews.

“An important lesson from the Ukrainian battlefield is surprising weakness and incompetence of the Russian armed forces. This is an important lesson for all neighboring countries of Russia, close or distant.”

The second lesson is that “the future armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, of Armenia is much further west. and there is no more nostalgia for authoritarian leadership in the model of armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new Vladimir Putin”.

“Russia is largely responsible for its arrogance and the fact that it considers Armenia as acquired. In other words. we see Armenia reaffirm its independence, strengthen its sovereignty at the expense of years of excessive dependence on Russia“.

At the beginning of 2025. the Armenian Parliament adopted a bill aimed at starting the process of membership in the European Union. an approach ultimately hostile armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new in the eyes of Moscow.

Erevan has also realized the risk of being on the wrong side of history “If we consider the flagrant crimes. of Russia against Ukraine“Added Mr. Giragosian.

The vacancy of power in the southern Caucasus

The loss of influence of Moscow in the region. the distance from Azerbaijan. Armenia with regard to the former ally will leave a dangerous empty of power, said Giragosian. “”Azerbaijan armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, is absolutely right, just like Armenia, to reject any armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new role of mediator for Russia.”

We are worried. we expect what “Angry and revengeful Russia attacks all of its neighbors by trying to regain the lost influence“.

And although Russia remains overwhelmed by its total war against Ukraine. it is clear that “This distraction will not last forever“, Especially since Armenia will organize elections next June.

Erevan will closely monitor Moldova. where the next legislative elections have already been the target of Russia armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new disinformation campaigns. attempts to manipulate the opinion of voters on an unprecedented scale.

In this regard, Armenia strengthens its cooperation with the EU.

“The transactional approach of Armenia is prudent because it is progressive. It does not aim for membership in NATO or anything too provocative“, said M. Giragosian.

“But I think that the democratic references of Armenia. its legitimacy. its prospects for stability really reinforce Armenia to challenge any form of armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace. armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new submission to Putin Russia.”

At the same time, Erevan normalizes his relations with Turkey.

“Turkey seeks to find the role of regional leader that it has lost“, explains Mr. Giragosian. stressing the economic aspect of this situation. since Ankara plans to reopen the border with Armenia in order to stabilize East Turkey.

“We expect a win-win situation in terms of recovery from trade and transport. This is which largely explains these diplomatic progress“He said. adding that Russia would always armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new try to restore its influence.

“Russia. if it is intelligent. will seek to play a manager’s role in restoring trade. transport, in particular between Armenia and Azerbaijan“, A strategy against which Armenia has already raised, according to Mr. Giragosian, because”Russia is so deeply unpopular and suspicious in Armenia“.

However. the real challenge is to prepare for what is to come, not the changes in Armenia, as warned of Mr. Giragosian, armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, new but those coming from Russia.

“We armenia azerbaijan getting closer peace, have to prepare for another scenario. For the postpoutine. a weak Russia with a power struggle in Moscow is an equally serious challenge for the region“, He concluded.