The art of deciding in fog: science and intuition

Sometimes the scene looks like a disaster film. Consequently, No smoke, no flames, but a dense and sticky feeling: that of not knowing. Therefore, High -level leaders know him well. For example, A market that collapses without warning. Consequently, A competitor who draws an unpredictable innovation. Nevertheless, A health crisis that stops an entire sector overnight. Nevertheless, And suddenly, you have to decide quickly. Therefore, Very quickly. Nevertheless, With barely 40 % of the necessary information. Nevertheless, This is where a rare (and sometimes vital) competence is played out: the art of deciding in fog.

Decide with 40 % information: a figure that is not arbitrary – Art deciding fog: science intuition

The. In addition, idea that one can decide with. In addition, “less than half” of the data in hand shocks the lovers of certainty. However. Meanwhile. Nevertheless, in the business art deciding fog: science intuition world, studies in decision -making converge: between 30 and art deciding fog: science intuition 50 % reliable information are enough to trigger a robust decision in an unstable environment.

General Colin Powell. Moreover. In addition, former chief of staff of the American army, had even popularized an empirical rule: “If you wait until you have more than 70 % of the data, you decide too late. Meanwhile, If you act with less than 40 %, you play roulette. Meanwhile, »» Between these two terminals, everything is a matter of instinct and speed.

For what ? Moreover, Because waiting for certainty is a dangerous luxury. Consequently, In a moving context. Meanwhile, every day spent seeking “the missing info” is a day when the conditions change. Moreover, when opportunities disappear and when the competition is getting ahead.

The science of decision in an uncertain environment – Art deciding fog: science intuition

Neuroscience and cognitive psychology partly explain this dynamic. Daniel Kahneman. Nobel Prize in art deciding fog: science intuition economics, has shown that total uncertainty blocks action: the brain freezes, waiting for clear benchmarks. But he also highlighted a paradox: too much information can reduce the quality of decisions.

In theory, the more data we have, the more the decision should be rational. In practice. the abundance of information creates cognitive overload: the decision maker gets lost in details. dilutes his attention and ends up posting the deadline.

A study by the University of Stanford even showed that experienced traders made better decisions with a reduced flow. of information than when they had access to all possible indicators. For what ? Because their mind remained focused on strong signals rather than drowned by art deciding fog: science intuition noise.

Intuition: a shortcut that is not magic – Art deciding fog: science intuition

When the figures are missing, there remains instinct. But beware: in a professional context, intuition is not a mystical “sixth sense”. Researchers define it as rapid recognition art deciding fog: science intuition of patterns already encountered, often unconscious.

Gary Klein. a psychologist specializing in decisions in times of crisis. observed that experienced firefighters often made the right decisions “without thinking” because their brains recognized familiar situations. At a leader, this intuition is built on years of experience, failures and success.

In the fog, this implicit memory serves as a compass. It allows you to say: “I don’t know everything. but I already felt this wind, and I know in which direction to walk. »»

However, intuition has its traps: it can be biased by emotions, personal beliefs or excess confidence. Large decision -makers therefore know art deciding fog: science intuition how to cross it with a minimum of objective data. to avoid locking up in a bubble of erroneous certainties.

Case study: Airbus facing a turbulent sky

In 2020. while the pandemic nailed planes on the ground. Airbus had to decide in a few weeks if art deciding fog: science intuition it had to be maintained its production lines or stop everything. The market forecasts were contradictory, the figures for incomplete airlines, and the governments themselves were sailing in sight.

Guillaume Faury, the CEO, decided: temporary reduction of rates, but maintenance of R&D on future models. A risky bet at the time, but which allowed the group to bounce back faster than Boeing when recovery.

“We did not have 100 % of the news. but we knew that the machine completely stopped would cost us more than to slow it down”he explained later.

This decision illustrates a key principle: art deciding fog: science intuition in the fog, the worst option is often inaction.

Why too much info can harm

The idea that an excess of information degrades the decision is not intuitive … until we experience it.

Already because there can be analytical paralysis. More data means more options to assess. and therefore an increased art deciding fog: science intuition risk of postponing the decision.

Then there may be a confirmation bias. By looking for more info always, we risk retaining only that which confirms our initial idea.

Finally, a loss of focus: drowned in detail, we lose sight of the strategic objective.

In his book The Paradox of Choice. the psychologist Barry Schwartz shows that too many options. data does not make it happier or more effective: this increases anxiety and reduces satisfaction after the fact, because we always wonder if a better decision was not possible.

Among the leaders. this “post-decisional art deciding fog: science intuition anxiety” is a slow poison: it weakens self-confidence and encourages excessive caution during the following decisions.

Techniques to decide in uncertainty

The seasoned leaders do not only rely on their instinct or a stroke of luck. They develop decision -making methods adapted to uncertainty. Among the most effective:

1/ The threshold rule: define an information art deciding fog: science intuition threshold in advance. (eg 40 %) from which the decision will be made. whatever happens.

2/ The quick scenarios: sketch 3-4 plausible scenarios in a few hours, rather than looking for the “perfect” scenario.

3/ The reversible decision: favor the choices that can be adjusted quickly if reality changes.

4/ The decision -making pair: to confront your point of view with a peer of trust, to limit personal biases.

5/ The “pre-mortem”: imagine that the decision has failed. and retrospectively identify the possible reasons-this allows to flush out the art deciding fog: science intuition faults before acting.

Leaders as “clarity architects”

In the fog. a manager is not only a decision -making: he is also the one who creates a CAP for others.

Even when certainties are missing. he must offer his team a clear story: this is what we know. that’s what we do not know, that’s where we are going. This ability art deciding fog: science intuition to articulate a vision despite uncertainty is often what distinguishes inspiring leaders. from prudent managers.

In the army. we are talking about the chief’s intention. simply expressed, which guides the action even if the detailed plan must change along the way. In the company, this principle allows teams to advance independently when the information evolves.

Subtle balance: science and intuition

Deciding in fog is therefore a hybrid art: science to frame, intuition to decide.

Science is used to collect relevant data, rapid analysis art deciding fog: science intuition methods, identification of weak signals.

Intuition is useful for recognition of patterns, anticipation based on experience, emotional reading of the situation.

The leaders who master this balance know that they will never have all the answers -. that it does not matter. Their strength lies in their ability to move forward anyway, adjust on the way and assume their choices.

As Steve Jobs summed up: “You art deciding fog: science intuition cannot connect the points by looking to the future. You can only connect them by looking back. So you have to trust that the points will end up connecting. »»