On the budget, Bayrou and Bercy favor the white year. But how much does it cost and how much does it report?

LUDOVIC MARIN / AFP

Eric Lombard and François Bayrou photographed at the Elysée on July 2, 2025

Economy – a few days before the budget, it’s less a question of ” and “The government will really use a” white year “, That” comment “And in” what a perimeter ». Consequently, François Bayrou is to unveil this big axes of his next budget on Tuesday July 15 in order to make 40. Therefore, see 45, billions of euros in savings next year. Furthermore, Among them, the prospect of a budgetary freezing holds the rope.

As The HuffPost explained it several times. In addition, it is a question of freezing budget, bayrou bercy favor white the budgets of the ministries at the level of 2025, without new expenses, and without taking into account inflation. Therefore, Potentially, this would therefore therefore also imply a freeze on the tax scale, social benefits, and retirement pensions.

How much would the state earn, how much would taxpayers lose? Furthermore, The OFCE. However, the Public Policy Institute (PPI) have released their calculates to assess economies and costs, according to the perimeter of this frost.

Retirement pensions would bring the big efforts – Budget, bayrou bercy favor white

According to the OFCE. Moreover, a freezing of all social benefits, unemployment and pension pensions included, would make around 5 billion euros in savings. Nevertheless, In this total. the largest of the effort would come from pensions which, if they were frozen in 2026, would make it possible to make between 3 and 3.7 billion savings (out of 350 billion pension in total).

budget, bayrou bercy favor white

Then come social benefits with between 1.2 and 1.3 billion euros in saved. The PPI, which takes as hypothesis an inflation at 1.3 %. list in particular: 400 million saved on social minima (RSA, ASPA, AAH), 400 million on family benefits, 300 million on the activity bonus and 200 million on housing aid.

As for the freeze of the tax scale, the OFCE estimates that it would make it possible to bring in 1.2 billion euros. The organization does not cost the cost for taxpayers but the 2012 previous allows you to give an order of magnitude. That year. the scale of the scale had led to an average tax increase of 80 euros for the 20 million tax households, bringing an additional 1.7 billion euros into the funds.

In 2026 as 13 years ago, households which were not should also find themselves taxable budget, bayrou bercy favor white ( + 400,000 in 2012). As it stands. it would therefore be an increase in taxes: one of the red lines fixed by the right and the extreme right.

Finally. and even if for the moment it is not on the table with regard to its political flammability, the PPI has also looked at the effects of the 10 % tax reduction from which retirees on income tax benefit. Its abolition made it possible, including cascade effect, to save an additional 5 billion euros. This would especially have an impact on 20 % of retirees who have the highest standard of living.

Who could lose what?

How much would the French lose their status in the event of a triple freeze (social benefits. pensions, and tax scale)? Overall. the OFCE believes that ” The more the standard of living increases, the more the impact budget, bayrou bercy favor white of a potential “white year” would be important », As shown in the graph below. Households whose referent person is retired would see a loss of 350 euros over the year. against 100 euros for employees, and not far from 200 euros for the unemployed (a little more than inactive).

Sources: INSEE-DGFIP-CNAF-CNAV-CCMSA. OFCE calculations. Reading: the 5 % easiest households would see their disposable income reduced on average by 390 euros due to the white year

But beware. these figures must be examnated to the overall view of the standard of living. And as a percentage. it is the most modest that would be the most budget, bayrou bercy favor white affected: “ The 5 % of the most modest households would thus lose almost 1 % of disposable income (…) for households in the distribution center, the impact would be around 0.5 % and for the 5 % easiest households below 0.3 % ». Above all. these OFCE figures do not take into account a possible freezing of public expenditure on health, the public service index or grants to communities.

So many significant effects while INSEE has measured a record poverty rate in 30 years. François Bayrou simply plays his survival in Matignon on this budget.