Can the Franco-British nuclear umbrella protect Europe? “You cannot have a ultimate warranty”

Paradoxically, Donald Trump’s unpredictable character may move the lines faster. Consequently, Indeed. Consequently, the risk of undergoing an abrupt American disengagement within the alliance (in the event of disappointment) places Europeans back to the wall. Meanwhile, Faced with the territorial ambitions of Russia (which is a nuclear power). Therefore, the time is therefore to strengthen the defense capacity of Europe, but also for its nuclear deterrent policy.

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Protection of vital interests – Can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect

In this area. Furthermore, in the event of American distance, European countries members of NATO depend on France (290 nuclear heads) and the United Kingdom (225)-the only two nuclear powers on the continent-to conduct a “Made in Europe” deterrence.

If British nuclear weapons are attached to NATO. However, this is not the case with France, can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect which keeps the right to carry out its own national strategy. However, “”In its DNA, the French nuclear deterrence wants to preserve the autonomy and independence of France. Nevertheless, There is therefore a refusal, to this day, to engage in steps that could question this principle. Consequently, This is the reason why France does not participate in NATO planning. Consequently, nuclear exercises, even if it officially supports them“Explains Emmanuelle Maitre, research master at the Foundation for Strategic Research.

This nevertheless does not constitute a limit to the strengthening of European nuclear deterrence. Therefore, estimates Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Meanwhile, “”French nuclear deterrence contributes to the defense of Europe. For example, Having a stronger Europe in defense is useful for France. However, Emmanuel Macron said it several times in his speeches. For example, French soldiers are also deployed abroad, especially in Baltic can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect states and in Romania as NATO. We also discuss a possible participation of European countries in French nuclear exercises.“

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“Sufficient” arsenal

Emmanuelle Maitre explains that. in fact, the nuclear power of France is “purely political, and only serves in extreme circumstances“, that is to say in the event that its” vital interests “are endangered: the population, the territory, the sovereignty of the nation … Is the question therefore: does Europe represent a” vital interest “for France?”There is deliberately a vagueness on this question. The precise definition of vital interests is neither public nor even formulatedspecifies the researcher. However. [depuis les années 1970, NdlR] French presidents believe that vital interests are not strictly confined to France and can concern our European and NATO allies. Certain types of aggressions that would can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect concern our European partners could therefore impact our vital interests. It is always a question of threshold and severity of the attack.“

Is the French nuclear umbrella, however, credible alone? Beyond vital interests. the ultimate self-defense (only as a last resort), the doctrine of French nuclear can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect deterrence is based on another principle: the notion of “strict sufficiency”, which opposes the logic of a arms race. “”All that matters in French doctrine is whether France is able or not to create these damage, Indicates Emmanuelle Maitre. There is no correlation between the number of weapons and its political commitment to protect a partner. France knows that it does not have the means to completely destroy a nuclear adversary like Russia. China, and that it is exposed to huge reprisals if it strikes. The logic of France is based on the conviction that we will never get there anyway because the opponent. is dissuaded. That even if he is able to destroy France, the game is not worth the candle.“

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Can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect

Common deterrence in Europe

Concretely, nuclear deterrence at European level is notably implemented can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect through bilateral partnerships, explains Héloïse Fayet. “”This has already been the case for a long time between France and the United Kingdom. There are also dialogues that exist with Germany. Poland, Sweden, the Netherlands, to see what role can play French nuclear weapons in the defense of these countries. But it should not be transactional, otherwise it loses all credibility.“

If Ursula von der Leyen. the president of the European Commission, announced 800 billion weapons expenses (the famous “Rearm Europe” plan), the European Union (EU) is unable to set up a European nuclear doctrine. Emmanuelle Maitre explains that indeed. “The format of the EU is not necessarily suitable for working on these questions, in particular because certain Member States, which are not in NATO, have signed a prohibition of nuclear weapons and therefore reject the very notion of nuclear deterrence.“

For the time being. “France and can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect the United Kingdom play a complementary role to that of the United States, both in Europe and in NATO“, in European nuclear deterrence, sums up Héloïse Fayet. Repeating that”US nuclear weapons deployed in Europe as part of NATO are still there. The Americans did not give up their extended situation.“

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Uncertainty

It remains to be seen whether Emmanuel Macron will be ready to press the red button in the event of assaulting the vital interests of France. The question also arises for the United Kingdom. Indeed. explains Emmanuelle Maitre, although the British nuclear deterrence strategy is integrated into NATO, “This does not mean that Keir Starmer is not able to conduct his own policy independently. It’s really, in finehe alone who decides. If there is a NATO ally that asks the can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect United Kingdom to drive a nuclear strike, it can absolutely refuse.“

There is always a large part of uncertainty, concludes the researcher. “”In peacetime, we are exercised and We try to dissuade. For the moment, it works relatively well since there has been no assault on a member state of NATO. But in wartime, everything changes can franco-british nuclear umbrella protect in another dimension. You can never know if. in the event of a conflict in Europe, the Americans will decide or not to use these weapons at the risk of putting themselves in danger. As long as such circumstances have not arrived, no political leader will undertake completely irrevocably on the shooting decision. So you cannot have a ultimate warranty.“