The confidence of SMEs is better again than expected when that of households disappoints and falls. In the euro area, industrial production contracts more than expected.
Economy
Statistics published in the US have been contrasted. The confidence of SMEs (NFIB index) is recovering from 98.6 to 100.3 in July, more than expected (98.9) while that of households (univ. Of Michigan) disappoints and falls from 61.7 to 58.6 in August. Retail sales, with revisions of the previous month ( +0.6% to +0.9%), are better than expected in July ( +0.5% m/m). Industrial production fell back in July by -0.1% m/m (vs +0% is.). If consumer prices have evolved online with expectations in July ( +0.2% m/m, +2.7% a/a), those in production ( +0.9% m/m vs +0.2% is.) And importation ( +0.4% m/m vs +0.1% is.) Act in the euro zone, industrial production is more than expected in June (-1.3% m/m/m vs -1% is.). In China, retail sales ( +3.7% A/A VS +4.6% is.), Industrial production ( +5.7% A/A VS +6% is.) And investments ( +1.6% A/A VS +2.7% is.) Disappointed.
Planetary limits
According to an article by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research and the Australian University of Queensland, published by nature, the exposure increased to extreme heat waves led to a reduction of 25 to 38% of bird populations in tropical regions compared to what they would have been without impact of human activities on the climate.
Obligations
In the US, the 10Y ended the week up 4 pb after the publication of a PPI above expectations (+0.9 m/m vs +0.2 expected), the market is now tabling on 84.5% chance of a drop in the Fed in September. In Europe, the OAT 10Y took 12 pb over the week and the Bund 10y 10 pb, due to a mix of tax and budgetary uncertainty, linked to the Ukrainian conflict. This week in the US, the eyes will be riveted on the figures for real estate construction, the minutes of the Fed and the PMI.
Feeling of traders
Bourse
The week will be calm on the macro side with only a few figures on real estate and leading index in the US while in the euro zone we will have the final ICC and the PMI manufacturer. The attention will be paid to the follow -up of the Trump/Putin meeting on Ukraine as well as the speech of Jerome Powell to Jackson Hole on Friday. Geopolitics could take over the economy this week.
Devises
Neither the US figures nor the Trump-Putin meeting will have managed to resuscitate volatility. The $ consolidates at $/CHF 0.8058, SU 0.7970, res. 0.8135. The single currency stagnates around €/$ 1.1695 and does not manage to rise above the res. €/$ 1.1730, a break from the SUP. 1,1600 would confirm a downward trend. The CHF remains dependent on the geopolitical and consolidated situation at €/CHF 0.9426, sup. 0.9350, res. 0.9500. Gold slightly increased at $ 3,350/oz. The £ is up to £/$ 1.3547, sup. 1.3370, res. 1,3780.
Markets
Neither the agitation on the geopolitical front nor the approach of the symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole disrupt actions. The indices continue their widespread increase (US: +0.9%; Europe: +1.2%; emerging: +1.5%) and the sovereign rates at 10 years go up from ~ 10 bp in EUR and some basic points in USD (and CHF). The dollar suffers a little (dollar index: -0.3%), but gold does not benefit from it (-1.5%), victim of a Risk on feeling. Oil prices also folded up by 1.2%. To be continued this week: promoters’ confidence index (NAHB), building permit, start-ups, PMI manufacturer and services and “minutes” of the Fed in the United States; PMI manufacturer and services in the euro zone; borrowing rate at 1 and 5 years in China.
Swiss market
To be followed this week: industrial production in T2 (OFS), July accommodation statistics (OFS), T2 labor market survey (OFS) and foreign trade/Exports July (OFDF).
The following companies will publish figures: Hiag, Medartis, PSP Swiss Property, Huber+Suhner, Bcge, Docmorris, Phoenix Mecano, Skan, Basilea, Alcon, Sensirion, Implenia, Emmi, Geberit, Gurit, Novavest, BCV, Orior, Siegfried, BKW, SPS, Sunrise and Allreal.
Actions
AIRBUS (Satellites) delivered 67 commercial planes in July, against 63 in June and a monthly average of 51 in the first half: positive and necessary vs our investment thesis.
AMRIZE (Satellites): CEO, Jan Jenisch, bought 1.095 million shares for $ 52 million since the publication of the company’s first half-off results (Holcim spin-off for the North American market). A positive signal.
HEIDELBERG MATERIALS (Satellites): Moody’s confirmed his BAA2 notation (equivalent to BBB at S&P) but has raised its perspective as a positive.
SIKA (Core Holding): According to Allied Market Research, the global sustainable building material market should grow from $ 342 billion in 2023 to 688 billion in 2033, or 7.2% PA on average.
TENCENT (Satellites) published a T2 superior to expectations, with balanced growth between gaming (+16%A/A), advertising (+20%) and financial/cloud services (+10%). Advertising should continue its solid trajectory in S2 thanks to the growing monetization of accounts. Tencent remains our top pick in China.
VOLKSWAGEN (Satellites) and Chinese Xpeng have announced the expansion of their collaboration in the electrical-electronic architecture of vehicles: a strategic element for VW, whose internal development has failed on these subjects.
Graphic of the day
Performances
