Thanks to the signing of an imposing decree of surcharges on several dozen countries, Donald Trump appears as the winner of a trade war which he himself launched. But behind this demonstration of force, the real effects remain to be nuanced, especially for the Americans themselves.
Donald Trump has hit again strongly. The American president signed, on August 1, a decree imposing new customs of customs on the exports of dozens of countries to the UNITED STATES. Among the most affected: theEuropean Union and the Japanwith a surcharge of 15%, the Canada with 35% and even up to 39% for the Suisse. This victory was prepared since last January, when Trump mentioned rights increases up to 60%.
An assumed force report strategy: threatening strongly to better obtain an agreement-and above all, to the advantage of the United States. Result: the main trade partners have sold, signing massive economic commitments, such as $ 750 billion in hydrocarbon purchases by the European Union or Japanese military orders.
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Reassured markets, resigned allies
Despite the apparent brutality of this announcement, the markets reacted well. In Tokyo, the scholarship remained stable. A sign that these new customs rights were welcomed as a lesser evil, an acceptable compromise in view of what could have been an open trade war.
And that’s also what the White House claims: ” Restructure world trade for the benefit of American employees ». But beyond political communication, this new deal has permanently weakens international commercial balances, and devotes a turn to protectionism assumed by Washington.
Read tooCustoms duties, non -tariff barriers, retaliatory measures: the words of protectionism
An economic victory in trompe-l’oeil?
In the short term, these customs taxes represent an important tax windfall for the United States. They fill the state funds and strengthen the image of a president defending national interests. But in the medium and long term, the table is darkening. Studies show that American consumers will pay the bill: imported products will become mechanically more expensive, supplying an already tense inflation.
Unlike Trump’s claims, it is not foreign exporters who pay, but American households, who will see their expenses increase. Economists already evoke a possible boomerang effect, both on inflation and on growth. The victory displayed today could well transform, in a few months, into an economic backhand.
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