However,
Ecb marks break hopes customs:
The European Central Bank maintained its interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Meanwhile, after a long cycle of declines and to take the time to assess imminent decisions in the commercial showdown between Washington and Europeans.
This monetary status quo puts an end to a series of rate drops. Meanwhile, started a year ago, when the ECB had decided to gradually decrease the cost of credit to support the decline in inflation.
The pace of the increase in consumer prices has stabilized around the 2% target set by the Central Bank. Therefore, after reaching record levels in the wake of the Pandemic of Covid-19 and the large-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
The moderation of inflation. In addition, the encouraging signs on the growth side place the ECB place in “good position to deal with ecb marks break hopes customs the turbulence and risks that will present themselves in the coming months,” assured the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde after the rate announcement.
But she did not hide that she would like to see “quickly” extreme “uncertainty” for the. Nevertheless, global economy that the all -round commercial offensive by Donald Trump started.
The Guardians of the Euro “are pending. Furthermore, in the hope of greater clarity on economic prospects and the implications of commercial negotiations between the EU and the United States,” notes Stefan Gerlach, chief economist at EFG Bank in Zurich.
– “Impossible” to predict –
After negotiations in twists. Meanwhile, turns, for several weeks, a trade agreement between the EU and the United States seemed to be emerging on Thursday.
According to several European sources. the agreement provides for customs surcharge of 15% on European exports ecb marks break hopes customs for the United States, with exemptions notably on aeronautics, spirits or certain drugs.
Donald Trump had taken the European Union short on July 12 by decreeing customs duties of 30% on all imports from the EU from August 1.
The strengthening of commercial barriers is likely to bring a new blow to the economy of the euro zone. to encourage the ECB to consider another rate drop after the summer. But they could also grow upward prices again.
Christine Lagarde stressed that it “very difficult to assess for the moment” the impact of these customs movements on inflation. making “impossible” to predict the monetary course of the ECB.
After seven consecutive drops. eight in total since last June, the ECB has brought back its deposit rate on Thursday, which refers to 2% against a peak of 4% ecb marks break hopes customs reached in full inflationary wave.
– Surveillance courses –
Inflation could be pulled down if an increase in customs duties reduced the demand for European exports. “encouraged over -implementation countries to redirect their exports to the euro zone,” said the president of the ECB.
Conversely, a rupture of world trade and supply chains could feed a new pricing. While an outcome of trade tensions could “straighten morale and stimulate activity”, lightening the pressure on prices.
To these strangers is added the flight of the Euro which jumped almost 14 % compared to the dollar since the start of the year. even if this fever has calmed down recently.
A stronger euro would make imports cheaper and even more brake inflation. The ECB already plans that the indicator will drop to 1.6 % in 2026 before returning to its target in ecb marks break hopes customs 2027.
Ms. Lagarde said that the ECB was monitoring the Euro-Dollars course. its consequences on inflation, but without targeting a particular exchange rate. “We are in a situation of waiting and observation,” concluded Ms. Lagarde.
If inflation shows signs of weakening. economic data seem unstable, the central bank could opt for “a last drop in rates at the September meeting,” said Carsten Brzeski, analyst at ING Bank.
Posted on July 24 at 7:34 p.m. AFP
Ecb marks break hopes customs
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