Consequently,
Few surprises regarding inflation united:
The fact that inflation is concentrated in property excluding food. Nevertheless, energy will facilitate the communication of the Fed on rate reductions. Nevertheless,
What happened
The United States has announced that inflation. Consequently, measured by the consumer price index (ICC) excluding food and energy (“Core CPI”), increased by 0.2% over a month in June. slightly below consensus expectations, but firmer than the previous months, with growing signs that companies are starting to pass the costs of customs duties on consumers.
The inflation of goods outside the automobile increased by 0.6% m/m, the highest increase since 2022. However. despite this increase in goods prices, the overall “Core CPI” index was moderate by deflation in the automotive sector and travel services. The general index (Headline CPI) also increased, reaching 2.7% over a year against 2.4%, supported by the rise in food and few surprises regarding inflation united energy prices in June, as well as by unfavorable basic effects.
What it means
Overall. this report does not include major surprises and remains largely in line with our annual forecasts for underlying inflation, which should end the year around 3.4% in annual sliding (compared to 2.9% in June). We continue to anticipate more inflation on goods, companies reappearing the costs of customs duties in the coming months. Associated with slightly firmer inflation on cars. travel services to the second half, this should bring back the underlying inflation above 3%.
And now?
Despite a more marked increase in the “Core CPI” in June compared to May. we believe that those responsible for the Federal Reserve will welcome this report:
- Increased inflation linked to customs duties justifies their cautious approach,
- While persistent disinflation in services should support rate drops in September and beyond.
We believe that the few surprises regarding inflation united fact that inflation is concentrated in property excluding food. energy will facilitate the communication of the Fed on rate reductions while inflation remains above the objective, especially since the services excluding housing only increase by 0.2% m/m currently.
Few surprises regarding inflation united
Further reading: Postfinance cut less positions than expected – Why is it perfect if you have an iPhone – The American Simplot swallows the Belgian Clarebout Potatoes, giant of the fries based in Flander-Western – When should the car be delivered? – CAC 40: After American inflation and the announcement of the savings plan of 44 billion euros in France, the CAC 40 finishes slightly drop.
