“No, it is not too late for the glaciers”: it is the nuanced conclusion of a new major scientific study, which reveals that each tenth of the degree of warming avowed can save whole sides of ice. A message of hope and action in the face of climate emergency.
The village of Blaten, striped from the map by a glacial landslide, brutally highlighted an implacable reality: our mountains change at a dizzying speed. Faced with these shocking images, an obsessive question circulates on social networks: is it already too late for our glaciers?
Some titles, like that of the New York Times, sound the alarm: “Some glaciers will disappear whatever happens”. Should we say goodbye to Swiss ice giants? The complex answer is however carrying hope: no, it is not too late for all glaciers, but the action must be immediate and decisive, affirms a major study published at the end of May in the journal Science.
Ice inertia: a phenomenon to understand
An international team of scientists, including several Swiss experts, has analyzed more than 200,000 glaciers to model their future. To enter the scale of the challenge, you must first understand a key concept: the inertia of glaciers.
The climatologist Martine Rebette, professor at the unine and the Federal Institute WSL, simply explains it: “In the current state, the glaciers are not suitable for the temperatures that we have today. A certain mass takes time to melt, it is as if you put an ice cube in a glass of water”. Clearly, even if global warming stopped, these masses of ice would continue to melt for centuries, due to warming already in progress.
Global figures that call for action
Today, in 2025, global global warming already reached around 1.4 degrees compared to the pre -industrial era. The projections of the science study are final: if the current trends are maintained, the planet would reach 2.7 degrees by the end of the century, far from the 1.5 degrees fixed by the Paris Agreement.
In this pessimistic scenario, only 24% of the current world ice cream would remain. But hope remains: by limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, we could preserve 53% of this mass. Estimates made possible thanks to the analysis of satellite images and complex simulations via eight computer programs.
The crucial stake of the Alps
If part of the melting is inevitable, each effort matters. The study estimates that around 39% of the global ice cream mass would be lost even if the temperature stabilized today.
As Lilian Schuster, study researcher, in the New York Times: “Each tenth of the degree of heating less will help preserve the ice cream mass”. A reality all the more significant for the Alps, whose more sensitive glaciers melt faster.
For the climatologist Martine Rebez, the stake is colossal for our mountains: “At 2.7 degrees or more, we will no longer have glaciers at all in the Alps”.
Less water available
The consequences of this melting are direct for the country: “The glaciers are water supply. The disappearance of this ice cream is already an increased warming in our regions. And the lack of water due to the disappearance of the glaciers will be felt during the summer”.
An alarming observation, but which leaves a room for maneuver: “If we limited warming below two degrees, this would allow us to keep around a third of our current glaciers”, estimates Martine Rebette, thus joining scientists explaining that each tenth of degree avoided is a victory for the preservation of our glaciers and the balance of our ecosystems.
Hélène Joaquim
