Switzerland remains under the economic pressure of the United States since the announcement of the famous “Liberation Day”.
Keystone
The implementation of punitive American customs duties has caused a shock in Switzerland. It gives new impetus to those who argue for a rapprochement with the European Union and strengthens the trend for international alignment in terms of security. Analysis.
The popular vote on “bilateral III”, the new package of agreements with the European Union (EU), promises to be one of the most important polls for the future of Swiss foreign policy. Parliament will not grasp it until 2026 and the vote will not intervene before, but the debates are already lively.
The American announcement of the taxation of new customs duties on 1is August – Day of the Swiss National Day, irony of the calendar – still fueled political discussions. And it gives weight to supporters and supporters of a European rapprochement.
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Since August 7, 39% punitive customs duties have been hitting Swiss exports for the United States. This tax rate has made the effect of a bomb in public opinion. For the Swiss industry, largely turned towards export, it is a real earthquake. The president of the Swiss machinery industry, a key sector, spoke without detour to a “attack on Switzerland”. The world of industry and that of politics now fear a wave of job cuts while some companies have already used partial unemployment.
But this price shock is also political. Switzerland had however been one of the first countries to initiate discussions with US President Donald Trump after the announcement in early April of massive customs tariffs as part of his “Liberation Day”. At the time, Bern faced a threat of 31% customs duties.
The government had quickly reacted and mentioned a declaration of intention concerning a project of agreement fixing customs duties of 10% on Swiss products.
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This compromise agreed well with the image that Switzerland loves to cultivate itself: that of a “sister republic” of the United States. And when the president of the Confederation Karin Keller-Sutter claimed to have “established contact” with American President Donald Trump, it seemed to confirm the privileged status of the country.
Any other scenario would have been difficult to accept for a Swiss deeply attached to its “Swiss exception”. This feeling, rooted since the XIXe century, justified neutrality during the two world wars and fueled the country’s spiritual defense during the Cold War – to the point of leading to the surveillance of political opponents.
Since the 1990s, this idea of “particular Swiss case” has become the political watchword of those who do not want European integration.
A dilemma for the conservative right
Customs duties mainly plunge the Democratic Union of the Center (UDC), the first party in the country, in embarrassment. Several of his leading figures have expressed their admiration for Donald Trump and pleaded for an economic rapprochement with the United States, with the aim of reducing the commercial dependence of Switzerland vis-à-vis the EU. The latter absorbs around half of Swiss exports, against some 18% for the United States.
Liberal right -wing media Fog splitter Immediately designated the culprits of the failure of negotiations with Washington. According to him, leftist “Euroturbos” within the government and the administration would have sabotaged the talks, in order to impose bilateral III on the people. An accusation which is based on the supposed existence of an “influential group of diplomats and civil servants” – without any evidence coming to support it.
Karin Keller-Sutter has delivered another version. During a press conference on August 7, she said that Donald Trump, with whom she spoke by phone at the end of July, quickly made her understand her intention to impose high rights, evoking her country’s trade deficit with Switzerland.
The explanations of the president of the Confederation were not enough to silence criticism. But one thing is certain: the bilaterals III, they gain popularity; at least temporarily.
The relationship with the EU, a crucial question
As important as the American market for certain sectors is, the future of Switzerland is played out in its relationship with the European Union. And the way to define the links between Bern and Brussels is one of the main lines of fracture of Swiss policy.
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Eight graphics to understand the economic relations between Switzerland and the EU
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EU membership is not seriously envisaged, a large majority of the population remaining opposite, according to polls. Rather, the debate relates to the degree of rapprochement with the European domestic market, its institutions and its infrastructure. A majority of parties support negotiated agreements; On the right, the approach remains isolationist and aims to maintain the greatest possible distance with Brussels.
One thing is certain: the Swiss left, traditionally favorable to the EU, benefits from the current price shock. But other actors, hitherto remained more reserved, are now pronounced for a rapprochement; especially in economic circles and the parties of the center.
Security: current European initiatives
This movement of rapprochement with the EU is also manifested in the field of security. Firstly because of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which deeply shaken the feeling of security in Europe, including in Switzerland.
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Then, because of Donald Trump. His unpredictability in this conflict fuels concerns, especially since he himself sowed doubt on the commitment of the United States to the NATO allies in the event of an attack.
Faced with this, European security initiatives have been strengthened in recent years, and Switzerland has taken part. It participates in particular in several military cooperation projects within the framework of PESCO (permanent structured cooperation of the EU), as well as in the initiative “European Sky Shield”. She also studies the possibility of joining the vast European rearmament program “Rearm Europe».
Between the government, the administration and most of the parties, a consensus has emerged: Switzerland must be closer to the EU, as it already does with NATO – while respecting its neutrality. Surveys show that this line benefits from large support in the population.
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European countries are approaching militarily and Switzerland follows (a little) the movement
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And even more than in the economic field, security issues require confidence and reliability. Compared to the United States, European partners appear to be poles of stability and common sense.
The Swiss government has already announced that it would continue to plead in Washington for a drop in customs duties, while taking support for the national economy. But no quick solution is in sight. The president of the Keller-Sutter Confederation summed it up at a press conference: “We want a framed relationship with the United States. It is an important trading partner. But not at any cost. “
Text reread and verified by Benjamin von Wyl, translated from German using an automatic translator/DBU
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