QUelques days after the American and Israeli strikes on the sites of Fordo, Natanz and Ispahan in Iran, what can we know about the effects and efficiency of this type of action? To see more clearly, we propose to make two reminders and three corrections in light of the results of independent research on military nuclear.
A reminder first. In the Middle East, Israel has a nuclear arsenal since 1967, but to date, Iran does not have it. This reminder is important because the official, expert, and media framing of the nuclear question in terms of “Proliferation” introduces confusion. In France, there are speeches on the imminence of an Iranian bomb since at least 2006.
A survey (Nuclear Knowledge/Ifop) on a representative sample of the French population in October 2019, replicated in October 2024, shows that more than 40 % of respondents wrongly believe Iran in possession of nuclear weapons (42 % in 2024) and only 40 % of respondents identify Israel as having nuclear weapons among a list of countries that we offer them (43 % 2024).
A violation of international law
Then, the use of force in the name of counter-proliferation is not a novelty, even if it constitutes a violation of international law. The United States was already considering such actions against the Soviet program in the late 1940s. Three states were delivered to it-the United States, Israel and the United Kingdom-and the Middle East was the priority target, in Iraq (in 1991, 1993, 1998 and 2003), Syria (2007) and Iran in particular in the form of assassinations of atomists since years 2010. The assassination of scholars, it must be remembered, is not a novelty either: in 1980, Yahia El-Meshad, in charge of the Iraqi nuclear program, was murdered in Paris.
First correction: the United States is commonly presented as major actors in non-proliferation, but independent research has shown that they are by far the largest “proliferating” agent of nuclear age. Not only did they develop nuclear weapons first, produced more than 30,000 warheads, but they have also helped the greatest number of other states to develop nuclear arms programs (the United Kingdom, France, Pakistan, India, South Africa and Israel).
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