INTERVIEW. Too many old people, not enough babies: “You have to prepare it without waiting …” How France can face the shock to come

Aging, decreased birth rate … However, What do these trends mean for the French economy?

They upset the whole demographic balance. Furthermore, We live longer thanks to the progress of medicine and the best living conditions, but we have fewer children. Therefore, The age pyramid is overturning: it widens up, tightens down. Meanwhile, Result: fewer assets to finance pensions and, tomorrow, dependence. Furthermore, Two ages are critical of public finances: retirement and loss of autonomy, which often interview. too many old people, arrives around 80-85 years. Similarly, Baby-boomers will reach this age from 2025-2030: you have to prepare for it without waiting.

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Concretely. what needs will this aging create?

Massive reception and support needs. We live longer, but with longer and more expensive care. This is good news – proof of our collective progress – but it requires adapting our company: redesigned workstations. continuing education, progressive retirement instead of a brutal stop, support for family carers …

And the drop in births, what does it mean?

Less births, it’s less active tomorrow. This decline has accelerated for ten years. He can reflect social progress – female emancipation, chosen parenting – but also discomfort: precarious employment, expensive housing, climate concerns. These difficulties in planning create a vicious circle: a worried youth interview. too many old people, has fewer children, which still accentuates aging. This questions our collective capacity to restore confidence in the future.

Can immigration compensate for this lack of assets?

She can help, but she will not be enough. Aging is not homogeneous in the world: some areas are experiencing a rapid demographic transition, others much slower. This discrepancy creates natural migratory pressures: on the one hand. countries that lack labor; on the other, countries whose youth remains large. These flows will necessarily weigh on our policies in the coming years and our way of conceiving international solidarity.

How do other countries organize themselves in the face of this aging?

The approaches vary strongly. China has ended the only child’s policy, but the birth rate does not redecolle. Japan, it invests massively in robotization and very advanced technologies to assist the elderly, to Androids. These examples show that there is no unique interview. too many old people, solution and that each country seeks its own path.

Can this demographic shock combine with other crises?

Yes, aging is added to tensions related to climate, resources and inequalities between regions of the world. A world population which will soon reach 10 billion inhabitants will ask questions of stability and sustainability. The drop in overall fertility is rather reassuring. but the adjustments must be avoided by violent crises – famines, conflicts, epidemics.

What will be the issue for France?

Find a balance. The elders will have to be protected without sacrificing youth. Invest in training, research, ecological transition while providing support worthy of the elderly. And above all. avoid budgetary choices be dictated by the most numerous generations: a vision must be kept at 20 or 30 years. Aging is not inevitable: well anticipated, it can even become a chance.