Invest in the aftermath of the pricing truce

The price price declared by American president Donald Trump ended on July 9 without any trade agreement having emerged in addition to those concluded with the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, China (preliminary) and Vietnam. Therefore, With an international changing trade, investors must make wise choices.

The stock markets have rebounded since April 2, anticipating negotiations likely to bring out trade in the dead end. Therefore, Both valuations and feeling have an excess of optimism, and volatility seems imminent.

Markets oriented towards the United States are at risk. Furthermore, Europe achieves 18% of its revenues across the Atlantic as a whole, a figure similar to Japan. Therefore, France and Germany are exposed up to 21% and 24%, respectively. Nevertheless, With its 27%. Nevertheless, the United Kingdom seems to be released thanks to its agreement in principle, but British companies are faced with domestic economic difficulties.

Emerging invest aftermath pricing truce actions are pulling out of the game

Unlike the European Union (EU). Switzerland is not one of the countries which have been noted by mail of customs duties from 1^is august. A reassuring sign for the Confederation, which may celebrate its national holiday with the conclusion of an agreement. The Swiss equity market derives 32% of its revenues from the United States. an agreement is crucial for the pharmaceutical sector, the main contributor to Swiss exports.

The actions of emerging markets are however better oriented to face a more volatile phase. Their lower valuations set the bar lower. Their beneficiary trends were strong despite a lower dollar. In addition. the emerging values are supported by the prospect of a monetary relaxation of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) for the rest of the year. Finally. the Chinese economy, one of the pillars of market capitalization of emerging markets, has shown better invest aftermath pricing truce resistance than expected thanks to the agreement defining a framework for negotiations with the United States.

Quality. Swiss real estate bonds

The US Congress has just approved the Trump administration budget, which will dig the deficit and public debt. This should not prevent a drop in long rates in response to an economic slowdown and Fed rate reductions. But this will avoid enlargement of credit differences-that is to say the risk premium on business obligations-and erosion of. expected yields. Private debt securities in dollars offer an average yield of 5% and those denominated in euros of 3.6%, interesting levels compared to the valuations of American shares or at the risk of correction in Europe. Investors therefore have the opportunity to lock attractive yields before rate drops by central banks.

In francs, corporate bonds do not display such high yields, but real estate represents an alternative. The Swiss National Bank (BNS) invest aftermath pricing truce has brought its key rate to zero. If the strength of the franc persists. increases, the probability of negative rate increases – even if this is not our basic hypothesis -, which real estate could benefit.