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Iran: price oil defies threats:
US Air Force strikes Iran
The price of oil defies threats to the Strait of Ormuz – Iran: price oil defies threats
Tehran promises to retaliate. Meanwhile, but petroleum does not flare. Nevertheless, The financiers do not bet on a war of supertankers.
A refinery south of Tehran, affected by a strike from the Israeli air forces on June 15. Consequently, Since then. Meanwhile, the Iranian authorities have also stopped part of the activity on the gas field of South Pars, the most important in the world, affected by another strike.
AFP
- The oil markets iran: price oil defies threats remain surprisingly calm despite the American strikes in Iran.
- The barrel of crude oil maintains a stable price around $ 76.
- Experts dismiss the hypothesis of a blocking of the Strait of Ormuz by Iran.
While the US Air Force strikes On several Iranian nuclear sites could lead Tehran to attack – in retaliation – to the supertankers crossing the Strait of Ormuz. Moreover, the oil circles remain surprising calm. Therefore, “Everyone, keep the low oil prices – I watch!” launched Donald Trump on his social network on Monday.
The adjustment of the wholesale prices of hydrocarbons remains very contained. Consequently, faced with events which, in the past, would have triggered an oil shock. Nevertheless, This Monday evening Monday, a barrel of 180 liters of unrefined oil even traded … Consequently, cheaper than Friday – around 76 dollars.
In service stations, pump price Nor have herself soared in the past ten days. Nevertheless, A reservoir which is explained by the way in which speculators. For example, hydrocarbon wholesalers are considering the continuation of the conflict. And by the deep changes that are at work on the black gold scene.
“Traders” on alert – Iran: price oil defies threats
Not that not all the “traders” have been alert. since the start of the open war between Israel and Iran on June 13. The oil cargoes obviously added-they were exchanging at $ 74. after the surprise air attack of the Israeli forces, while they have been playing just above 60 dollars since the beginning of spring.
But. since then, do not panic carrying the lessons towards the $ 100 – an alert rating exceeded iran: price oil defies threats on multiple times between 2008 and 2014. Especially when the diet falls in Libya. Similar calm on the wholesale market in Rotterdam, where petrol increased only 1% on Monday morning.
No scenario of blocking the Strait of Ormuz
First explanation. the black scenario of a blocking of the Strait of Ormuz-by which transit near the quarter of world oil, including that sent by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq or … Iran, itself-is not the privileged one.
The Islamic Republic has shown that it could do it. Especially during his terrible war against Iraq, in the 1980s. Or in April 2023, during the boarding of a oil tanker chartered by the major American Chevron.
“The current observation that dominates the markets? Despite the vote of the Iranian Parliament in favor of iran: price oil defies threats blocking the Strait. such an operation remains complex and would directly affect the country’s oil revenues – mainly with China, “said Samy Chaar, economist chief in the Lombard Odier bank on Monday.
Which does not mean that the threat does not exist. “The nakedness capacity of Tehran – even a minimal. through Houthis, in Yemen – justifies the maintenance of a risk premium in oil prices, in particular due to the surge of insurance premiums for oilmen sailing in the area,” adds Michaël Nizard, from Edmond de Rothschild am. A premium therefore. But no more than that.
New deal on petroleum
This restraint is also motivated by. the new oil reality which has been set up for a decade. That of an America not only self -sufficient in hydrocarbons. but whose production is massively dispatched iran: price oil defies threats abroad, as in the 1960s. And to which it is necessary to add an extraction which turns in full in Brazil, Argentina or Canada.
“In the absence of a major disruption on supplies. the oil markets appear well fed until 2030,” admitted the International Energy Agency a week ago – the “voice” of industrialized countries on the oil scene, however known for its prudence.
In question, the gradual adoption of the electric car. Or the switching of the middle-oriental electric power plants on gas. Result. “even if the demand for aerial kerosene continues to grow, the use of oil as fuel or fuel should reach a tray in 2027”, sketch The AIE. An “petroleum peak” to reverse it from that feared in 2007, which had helped bring the barrel courses to more than $ 130.
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