The oil prices fell after Iran’s response to the American attack on Iran on Sunday morning, the market seeming for the moment to rule out the disaster scenario of a Tehran response on the Strait of Ormuz, where 20 % of world crude transit.
Ormuz spared
Black gold courses experienced a brief start on Monday at the opening of the session, before stabilizing.
Around 9:20 am (Eastern time), the Brent of the Brent of the North Sea, the world reference, scored 0.19 %, to US $ 77.16, after being up to US $ 81.40, an unprecedented level since January, when it had been propelled by sanctions against the Russian energy sector.
The “moderate reaction” of the market on Monday “suggests that investors do not yet anticipate a major disruption of the world supply,” said Daniela Sabin Hathorn, analyst at Capital.com.
The transit of oil tankers in the Strategic Detroit d’Ormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is not at this stage not disturbed by Tehran.
More than 20 million barrels in gross pass there every day, a fifth of the world’s oil flows and a third of oil traffic.
This passage is particularly vulnerable because of its low width, approximately 50 kilometers, and its depth, which does not exceed 60 meters.
Its closure would constitute an “absolute nightmare” which would explode the prices, according to Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyst of Global Risk Management.
Questioned by AFP, Ole Hvalbye, from Seb, believes that the threshold of US $ 100 would be exceeded for the barrel of Brent.
Moderate fears about the Iranian reply
Ormuz is “highly monitored from a global point of view”, notably by the American navy, notes Ole Hvalbye. “A real blockade for weeks is very improbable. »»
However, the analyst does not exclude targeted attacks on Western sea companies from “small boats with weapons, mines” or missiles.
The head of American diplomacy, Marco Rubio, warned Monday that a blockage of Ormuz would constitute “another terrible error” and “an economic suicide” for Tehran, which depends on oil exports.
Some investors “think that Iran will avoid rippling fully and provoke regional chaos in order to protect its own oil installations”, which could become targets, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, of Swissquote Bank.
An escalation would also harm China, the main oil customer of Iran, ninth producer in the world with 3.3 million barrels per day.
A risk already taken into account
“The markets react less and less to the news,” observes Mr.me Ozkardeskaya, for whom “this lack of reaction is fascinating. »»
It must be said that geopolitical risk, after the mid-June starting of war between Iran and Israel, has already been largely integrated into prices with the fears of American strikes on Iranian territory, which finally took place on Sunday.
At the height of the peak reached on the night of Sunday to Monday, the Brent was up to 15 % more expensive than before hostilities in Iran.
For Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, questioned by AFP, this geopolitical “risk premium” amounts to around US $ 10 per barrel.
Options
An increase in price would eventually fade with the “release of strategic reserves, especially in the United States and China”, notes Ole Hansen, analyst of Saxo Bank.
He also notes that part of the oil exports from Saudi Arabia and Emirates could be reoriented “via pipelines to installations outside the Strait”.
A forecast, however, tempered by Ole Hvalbye, for whom there is no “immediate option” in Ormuz, if not “an oléoduc ranging from Qatar to the west, but with a lesser capacity”.
In addition, points out Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI AM, the organization of oil exporting countries and its allies (OPEC+) – which have already increased their production more than expected this year – have an unexploited capacity of around 5.2 million barrels per day, in particular in Saudi Arabia.
