It is not a “rebound” but some positive indicators show signs of improvement for the French economy

The prospects are clearing up for French companies, which count on improving activity by the end of the year.

Touched but not sunk. Similarly, Burial for three years in various uncertainties. Therefore, French companies show resistance, some even hoping for a resumption of activity at the end of the year, show studies published this month.

Bpifrance Le Lab’s latest semi-annual survey, with more than 4,700 TPE-PME leaders, is entitled “Stabilization”.

“We are not in the bounce franc. For example, but several indicators may start the end of the disturbing decrees,” says Philippe Mutrcy, director of studies at Bpifrance.

The activity prospects for the end of the year earn 15 points to +22 among SMEs with more than 100 employees. who anticipate an increase of 2.7 % of their turnover in 2025.

“Now, underlines Philippe Mutricy, these large SMEs often feel improvements before it not “rebound” but some the others, it may be a positive message”.

Exporting. innovative companies also display more favorable prospects: the opinions of the leaders of these companies have become positive as to a resumption of activity at the end of 2025.

“Slowed down but positive” – It not "rebound" but some

However. the survey was carried out before Donald Trump announced on Saturday wanting to tax European products at 30% from August 1.

American customs duties. already 10% since April, and the uncertainty linked to the swerry of President Trump on this issue weigh in sectors such as the food industry, in particular viticulture, chemistry or engineering, according to the monthly conjuncture survey of June by the Banque de France: 6% of French companies say they are impacted.

However, the survey shows better activity in June. It is explained by a revival after the three long May bridges. but also exceeds the expectations of business leaders, especially in industry, market services and it not “rebound” but some building.

And the latter anticipate a new progression in July.

“The French economy is rather maintained”. with “slowed but positive growth”, commented on RMC the governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau.

This was 0.1% in the first quarter. The institution anticipates it at 0.1% also in the second quarter and 0.6% for the year.

Another signal of a slightly better possible: business failures, up sharply since 2023, stabilize, although at a high level.

According to Altares, 16,586 procedures were recorded in the second quarter, but the increase compared to 2024 is limited to 1.3%, “far from the +23% of a year ago”.

65,000 jobs are threatened by these failures, a drop of 6.5% over a year.

Reflux of failures in June

“The trend is all the more remarkable. underlines Altares, if we follow the details months a month: after April again in the red, (the month of) May stopped the it not “rebound” but some increase, and June confirmed the reflux”.

However. tempers the director of studies of Altares Thierry Millon, “the fragile situation and the uncertain perspectives undermine household confidence and call for caution”.

The French are indeed fed on the economy, with a savings rate at 18.8% in the first quarter, a record for 45 years (excluding health crisis).

Concerning companies, the Banque de France analyzed 2024 tax documents of 1.6 million SMEs. ETIs (intermediate -sized companies) and delivers a globally reassuring diagnosis: they approach 2025 with solid fundamentals, “resistant margins, declining debt, stable cash”.

The French central bank notes. however, a “slight degradation” of their reimbursement capacity and believes that the most fragile will be able to encounter difficulties.

And according to a survey by the SDI (Syndicat des independents). the morale of very small businesses is fragile: 86% of managers have a negative state of mind, and 54% note a drop in turnover in it not “rebound” but some the second quarter – which is however better than in the first quarter, where 69% declared such a drop.