Who is responsible for the bad employment figures that have fallen on Friday August 1st? For Donald Trump, the culprit was found all: the manager of Bureau of Labor statistics (BLS), the Labor Statistics Agency in the United States. Last Friday, the American president thus returned the economist, Erika MCENTARFER, who has run the institution since the beginning of 2024.
He accuses him of having manipulated the figures for political purposes. “In my opinion, the employment figures published today have been faked, in order to harm the image of the Republicans and mine », He wrote at the end of last week on his Truth Social network. According to him, the data would also have been faked before the presidential election. On Monday, he assured that he was going to appoint a replacement during the week. His choice should then be validated by the Senate, where his party has a majority.
MOROSE FIGURES
The American employment figures released on Friday are gloomy. The job creations were only 73,000 against the 100,000 expected. But it was above all the revised figures of May and June that posed a problem. The Statistics Agency announced 139,000 jobs created in May during its first estimate, this figure was revised to … 19,000. For June, the employment number also increased from 147,000 during the first estimate at 14,000 on Friday. A considerable gap in estimates.
“The extent of the revisions is abnormal knowing that the BLS does not give reasons, that the models are the same and that the response rate to surveys is good. But Donald Trump goes too far by saying that the figures have been manipulated ”, argued on Monday with The platformChristopher Dembik, economist at Pictet AM.
Deviations that have always existed
The statistics office collects employment data in the form of two surveys. The first is led by driving with households and the second is carried out with companies and government organizations by telephone or on the Internet. Then the economists check the data and compile it in a monthly report. Several data revisions take place in the meantime.
“The important thing is to understand that revisions are not a bug. It is a functionality. BLS tries three times to encourage employers to declare the number of jobs they offer, but sometimes they cannot do it immediately. BLS therefore attributes this figure to the behavior of other people, other similar companies and history ”, explained in this regard Erica Groshenagency commissioner from 2013 to 2017, on CNN Friday, reports NBC News.
Above all, this is not the first time that such a difference has occurred between the final figures and the first estimates. Revisions would even be “Current currency”, explains in a note Alexandre Baradez, analyst at IG. He thus gave the example of January 2024 when the figures had gone from 353,000 to 119,000. Under the Democrat Joe Biden, between January and September 2024, “All the employment figures published initially, were then revised downwards.”
In addition, Donald Trump’s wrath focused on the office of the office which had been appointed by Joe Biden. But in fact, it is not she who takes care of the employment figures. “The commissioner does nothing to collect the figures. He did not see them until Wednesday, before their publication. When she sees them, they are already ready. They are locked in the computer system ”, commented Sunday for CNN William Beach, a former BLS official.
Another reason has been put on the table to explain such a difference in figures: the lack of increasingly important staff of the Statistics Office, which could ultimately reduce the quality of publications. “The important revisions given to employment figures in recent years do not reflect manipulation, but rather the reduction in the resources allocated to statistical agencies”estimated in a press release The Nabe, an American association of economists.
A slowdown in the American economy
If Donald Trump diverts employment figures for political purposes, these results are a sign of a slowdown in the economy, largely due to the trade war led by the American president, point to many economists. If customs duties are not a direct cause for this slowdown, it is especially uncertainty around which has consequences on the choices of economic actors. “” As many of us have pointed out, this uncertainty has greatly discouraged business investments », In a note, in a note, American economist Paul Krugman.
« The economy is on the verge of recession. This is the clear conclusion of economic data published last week “, Is alarmed on social networks on Sunday Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “” Consumer expenditure is stagnating, the construction and manufacturing industry sectors are in contraction and employment should decrease “, He completes.
A reality far from what Donald Trump pleads on his social networks. In his world, ” The economy is booming ” thanks to ” The Trump effect », Can we read on a poster published on its Truth Social thread.
