Continuing their strategy to reconquer market share, Ryad, Moscow and six other OPEC+ oil producers have, as planned by the market, once again increased their quotas at a meeting on Sunday, closing a cycle started in April.
The eight energy ministers decided to “adjust the production of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 compared to the level of production required in August”, said the OPEC press release.
This increase is “widely taken into account in prices”, according to Giovanni Staunovo from UBS, which does not plan to reopen the reopening of the markets on Monday.
The Brent course, a global reference, is currently evolving around $ 70. We are far from the summits at 120 dollars reached in the spring of 20222 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the organization of the oil exporting countries and its allies (OPEC+) now prefer to focus on the reconquest of the field.
They have operated this turning point in recent months after having long fought price erosion by organizing a rarefaction of the offer via several production cups.
It is one of them, of 2.2 million barrels per day granted by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman who was reintroduced to the market.
With the announced increase, the OPEC+ signs the complete return of this tranche – as well as 300,000 barrels per day granted specifically to the United Arab Emirates – a year before what was originally planned.
– “Find a balance” –
The horizon for the next few months is more uncertain, “our basic scenario bets that the group will then mark a break in its increases,” said Warren Patterson, at ING.
The prices of black gold have resisted better than what observers had anticipated at the start of the reopening of the valves in April, supported by a traditionally strong summer demand and a high geopolitical risk premium, especially since the war between Iran and Israel.
In addition, between March and June, the effective increase in production was less than that of the quotas displayed over the same period, recently stressed Mr. Staunovo in a note.
But “the market should experience a significant surplus (oil supply) from the fourth quarter of this year, and OPEC+ will have to make sure not to worsen this surplus”, judges Mr. Patterson.
“The alliance strives to find a balance between regaining market share and avoiding a sudden fall in oil prices” so as not to melt its profits, adds Tamas Varga, of PVM.
Saudi Arabia, its most influential member, is particularly counting on the oil rent to finance its investment and modernization projects of the country.
For the moment, the return of the other production cuts (around 3.7 million b/d) must be discussed at the next ministerial meeting of OPEC+ at the end of November, with this time all 22 members, but the eight countries “will meet on September 7, 2025,” said the OPEC.
– Unstable environment –
Shaken on the side of demand by the erratic trade policy led by Donald Trump and on the side of supply by the global geopolitical tumults which threaten the supply, the future of the oil market is difficult to predict for experts.
Last twist, the American president gave a period of “ten days” to Moscow on Tuesday to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine, under penalty of American sanctions against Russia.
“We are going to impose customs duties and other things,” warned the republican billionaire, who had previously mentioned an indirect surcharge of 100% on countries that buy Russian products, including hydrocarbons, in order to dry Moscow income.
The tenant of the White House notably targeted India, the second importer of Russian barrels with around 1.6 million daily barrels since the start of the year.
This could encourage OPEC+ to continue its offensive. But it “will only react in the event of real supply disturbances,” said Giovanni Staunovo.
Posted on August 3 at 2:30 p.m. AFP
