A possible agreement this Sunday on customs duties between Trump and the EU

A “hand” agreement – Possible agreement this sunday customs

The European Union still has the hope of negotiating a trade agreement with the United States before August 1. Meanwhile, a deadline from which the American president threatens to impose customs taxes of 30% on all imports from Europe. In addition, Donald Trump estimated Friday at “50-50” the chances of concluding an agreement with the European Union. For example, “We work very diligently with Europe”he said, before going to Scotland.

Thursday, a spokesperson for the European Commission said that an agreement was at “Range”.

“Giving in to intimidation is a dangerous strategy”

While European leaders already thought of an nearby agreement. Consequently, Donald Trump had taken them short on July 12 by brandishing this threat of customs duties of 30% on all European products in early August. Meanwhile, Negotiations have been taking possible agreement this sunday customs place since to avoid these measures which would plunge these two giants from the world. Meanwhile, economy in a substantial commercial dispute.

Puts reprisals

According to several European sources. Nevertheless, the agreement under negotiation provides for customs from 15% on European exports for the United States, with exemptions in particular on aeronautics, spirits or certain drugs. Nevertheless, A separate agreement concerns steel. Imports from Europe would be supervised by quotas and any overtaking would be taxed up to 50%, according to diplomats.

This project of global agreement. which resembles that announced between the United States and Japan in the middle of the week, remains suspended in the green light from the American president. He had already rejected a previous version more favorable to the EU, with customs duties set at 10%.

And in the event of the failure of the negotiations. the Europeans possible agreement this sunday customs announced Thursday that they had put the last hand to possible reprisals: a list of American goods which would be taxed for a total of 93 billion euros, from August 7 and in several stages.

What impact on the European economy?

Eric Dor. director of economic studies at the IESEG School of Management in Lille, explained earlier this week that this rate of 15 %, if it were confirmed, would be very bad news for the European economy. “”Customs duties of 15 % are in fact almost identical to the 14.8 % which already prevail now. It would therefore be resigned. taking into account the already achieved depreciation of the dollar, that the cost of acquisition in dollars of EU property by buyers of the United States is definitively increased by 23 % compared to the beginning of the year. And this could be further aggravated if possible agreement this sunday customs the dollar continues to depreciate. which at least want part of Trump’s advisers “, He explained this Wednesday evening in an updated analysis note. And to prevent: “Sales of EU property in the United States will therefore decrease. There will therefore be reductions in production and employment for the EU’s concerned sectors. Companies will also be encouraged to close factories in Europe. relocate them to the United States to supply the American market, …. even European if the EU keeps unchanged, at a low level, its own customs rights on imports of goods from the United States. Instead of reindustrialisation, it is a worsening of deindustrialisation that the EU will be confronted “.

For the economist, “Thusing intimidation is a dangerous strategy “. “It might be wise to risk the absence of agreement. to undergo customs duties of 30 % in the short term, but deploy sufficiently strong possible agreement this sunday customs retaliatory measures, in particular on services, to force the United States to accept very quickly a much better balanced agreement in favor of the European Union “, he concludes.

This Sunday, all eyes will therefore be turned to Scotland to analyze the details of a possible trade agreement. Which will be the subject, not to doubt, the subject of all comments on the stock markets early next week.

What we know about commercial negotiations between Europe and the United States