Prospects for the second half of 2025: shares, bonds, gold and currencies

Since last summer, demand and the economic climate in Europe have improved slightly. However. Similarly. Nevertheless, the euro zone could be even more weakened if China is trying to increase its penetration into the region’s markets. However,

1. Meanwhile, US bonds/shares

As of June 13. For example. Nevertheless, the MSCI US index in EUR (total net yield), underperform 8% since the beginning of the year and the US Treasury bills have been very volatile due to political uncertainty, budget deficit and distrust of American assets. Consequently,

The American economy has resisted relatively well in the first six months of the year. Moreover. Consequently, despite the chaotic and aggressive tariff regime set up by President Trump, who has an impact on consumers and businesses. Furthermore, Given that the uncertainty linked to the prospects second half 2025: shares, new policies of the Trump administration should persist. For example. Moreover, that the prospects second half 2025: shares, tax impetus given by the “great and beautiful law” will be minor, the growth of GDP should according to us slowing down to the second semester. Furthermore,

In this context. However. Moreover, we adopt a cautiously optimistic point of view with regard to the American duration, anticipating a slight evolution of the drop in yields, which is however accompanied by high volatility. Furthermore, The trajectory of inflation should remain irregular. Similarly. Moreover, because the upward pressures exerted by customs duties and expansive budgetary policy should be counterbalanced by the degradation of the macroeconomic context. Moreover, Monetary policy should play a short -term limited role. Additionally, Moreover. as long as the federal reserve is likely to remain patient, with two reduced rate drops towards the end of the year. Furthermore, In the end, prospects second half 2025: shares, new the yield of the treasury at 10 years will be around 4.2% by the end of the year according to prospects second half 2025: shares, our forecasts.

On the actions, Donald Trump threatens American exceptionalism, which reduces support for historical valuations and the strong growth in profits. However, American actions have recorded a clear rebound to return to the level of the Liberation Day. They seem to be fully valued, the markets tabling on a favorable outcome in terms of commercial and budgetary policy. This limits the potential for rising and can increase vulnerability in the face of disappointments. If we take into account new orders. GDP growth projections. profit per share should only increase by 5%, a level significantly lower than current market forecasts, which are around 9 to 10%. In this context. we prefer to position ourselves in certain sectors such as American technology. which benefits from structural prospects second half 2025: shares, new growth and the growth of profits induced by AI.

2. European bonds/shares

As of June 13. the MSCI Europe in EUR (total net prospects second half 2025: shares, return), recorded a strong increase of 10%. The rebound in the market was fueled by larger flows to Europe. relatively attractive valuations. the ECB’s relaxation cycle, the announcement of the German recovery plan, the improvement of Chinese consumption and the drop in prices of Brent oil. German state obligations have been very volatile since the start of the year. at least during certain periods, due to political tensions on both sides of the Atlantic.

Since last summer, demand and the economic climate in Europe have improved slightly. However. the euro zone. already vulnerable to an increase in American customs duties and a global economic slowdown, could be even more weakened if China is trying to increase its penetration in the prospects second half 2025: shares, new markets in the region. German announcements and the European Commission plan could help to mitigate the negative impact of the trade war. Growth will slow down over the next six prospects second half 2025: shares. months, but the BCE rate reduction cycle will likely avoid a recession.

In this context, we remain optimistic about the Euro duration. The ECB seems to get closer to the end of its rate reduction cycle. However. we plan two additional declines before the end of the year, supported by well -established inflation prospects and a moderate macroeconomic environment. The yields should be maintained in a wide fork and that of the Bund should oscillate around the 2.4%mark. Beyond the “core” obligations, we have a more nuanced vision. In the “semi-core” segment. illustrated by France, we are tabling on a modest enlargement, with yields likely to increase up to approximately 3.2%, against 3.1% currently. The prospects second half 2025: shares, new high levels of public debt. combined with persistent political and budgetary uncertainty, are likely to exert upward pressure on the yields of this segment. On the other hand, the peripheral markets should experience a slight prospects second half 2025: shares, tendency to tightening. Italian yields should contract around 3.3% and Spanish yields at 3.0%, thanks to the improvement of primary sales, better budgetary trajectory and more resilient growth prospects.

Regarding actions. the UEM is at the crossroads. seeking a balance between defense and infrastructure spending, on the one hand, and American customs tariffs, on the other. Although exposed to trade tensions. Europe could be supported by stronger budgetary responses. more attractive valuations, partially compensating for the opposite winds linked to customs prices. However. after the strong rebound. the valuation is less interesting and the national sectors such as financial services and communities are expensive. Today, we adopt a more balanced prospects second half 2025: shares, new vision, because the profits should be affected by the increase in parity L’EUR/USD.

3. Or

Since the beginning of the year. gold has registered in a hause of approximately 29%. supported by geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty prospects second half 2025: shares, induced by the policy of the Trump administration.

Despite its impressive performance since the beginning of the year. gold remains a solid coverage in a world marked by geopolitical complexity and the volatility of real interest rates. The weakening of the US dollar is also favorable for precious metal. Despite positive return on bonds. the gold request is supported by purchases of central banks. by the evolution of preferences in terms of reserve assets. In addition, demand from individual investors and ETFs has increased, with a view to protecting macroeconomic risks.

4. Devises

Since June 13, 2025, the US dollar has unscrewed compared to the prospects second half 2025: shares, new main currencies. The US dollar index (DXY) has dropped by more than 10%. the worst historical performance since the day of the inauguration of President Trump. This low -green tank is due to the drop in the demand for assets denominated in dollars prospects second half 2025: shares. induced by. Donald Trump policies as well as capital outings.

Over the next six months, it is likely that weakness of the US dollar will continue. The federal reserve should carry out two rate drops in a context of economic slowdown.. the relative advantage of American returns should erode, especially since other central banks, including the ECB, are close to the end of their own interest rate reduction cycle. At the same time. the increase in the US budget deficit. amplified by the reduction in revenue (tax reductions), undermines confidence in the long-term viability of public finances of the United States. This prospects second half 2025: shares, new context. combined with the growing efforts of world reserves managers to rebalance the exposures to currencies. reduce excessive dependence on the dollar, will probably accentuate the pressure on the greenback. We therefore think that the dollar should continue to gradually weaken. in particular compared to currencies prospects second half 2025: shares. which benefit from an improvement in external sales and a more favorable development dynamic. According to our forecasts, the EUR/USD parity will be 1.18 in 6 months.