For example,
Quebec economy | growth start:
The gross domestic product (GDP) of the Quebec economy increased by 0.5 % in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter at the end of 2024. For example, according to data published Thursday by the Institute of Statistics of Quebec.
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But in the opinion of economists. Therefore, this start of growth in Quebec at the start of the year could be short-lived, before the full impact of the trade conflict with the United States is felt.
“The growth of GDP in the first quarter has increased compared to the last quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, quebec economy | growth start but it should not be seen as a sign of vigor for the economy of Quebec,” warns Daren King, economist of the National Bank.
This growth start “is much explained by a considerable leap in exports in a. Meanwhile, context where our commercial customers south of the border have ahead of numerous purchases at the start of the year in order to avoid the impact of prices”.
“Quebec companies have also increased their imports [de fournisseurs américains]but to a lesser extent. Therefore, »»
At the Desjardins Movement. the main economist Sonny Scarfone also notes that “the Quebec economy gained dynamism in the first quarter, a period marked by a context of marked trade changes”.
In fact, reports the economist, “international trade supported this growth, while exports have grown faster than quebec economy | growth start imports. This dynamic reflects the efforts of companies to anticipate the taxation of new pricing barriers. both for sending abroad (exports) and to constitute inventory of inputs (imports) ”.
In return. Desjardins’s economist finds that “domestic demand [de l’économie québécoise] Stagnated in the first quarter, while households adopted a more cautious posture in the face of the rise of uncertainty “in a context of commercial conflict.
According to data from the Quebec Statistics Institute, Quebec’s consumption expenses decreased by 0.4 % in the first quarter of 2025, after six consecutive quarters of increase.
“The trade conflict with the United States has weighed on household consumption,” says economist Daren King, of the National Bank.
Quebec economy | growth start
Good points
That said. economists are “some good news” quebec economy | growth start in GDP data in Quebec during the first three months of 2025.
Daren King underlines “the sustained growth in investments [des entreprises] in machinery and equipment despite the context of economic uncertainty ”.
He also points out that “investment in residential buildings experienced a significant increase in the first quarter of 2025. for a fourth quarter of consecutive increases, while the start -ups in the province continue to look good”.
At Desjardins, the main economist Sonny Scarfone stresses that “investment in companies in machines and equipment increased by 10.8 % [au premier trimestre] . An acceleration which reflects the anticipation of an increase in prices in a context of the rise in American protectionism and reprisal measures of Canada. “
Ensuite ?
In the opinion of quebec economy | growth start the experience economist Hélène Bégin. “the economy of the province has remained solid [au premier trimestre]but it could well be a last breath unless there is a reduction or withdrawal from American customs tariffs in brief maturity ”.
The economist at the Provincial Association of Quebec Real Estate Brokers reports that “economic. difficulties have been impacting since April on the unemployment rate which has already increased around 6 % in Quebec”. Mme Bégin anticipates that “the upcoming statistics of GDP will confirm with a certain discrepancy the domino effect which is already well initiated in the province. especially in the regions most vulnerable to American prices such as Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Mauricie and Center-du-Québec”.
Consequently. according to Hélène Bégin, “a slowdown or even a decline in the Quebec economy will be confirmed by the next GDP statistics in April and the following quebec economy | growth start months. This drop in economic activity could thus affect the statistics of the GDP in the second quarter of 2025 ”.
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