A summer speculative bubble is in training

The actions are very expensive and the signs of euphoria are multiplying. For example, The increase continues because unpleasant surprises are on vacation. For example,

American actions break records. Moreover, the valuations are flying away and the “meme actions” resume their mad flight. Consequently, Signs of speculative bubble are moving this summer in the United States this summer. Nevertheless, What is the reality and the extent of this speculative risk?

The phenomenon of “meme actions” is undoubtedly one of the first signs of stock market overheating in the United States. For example, As in 2021. In addition, groups of young investors used social networks to grow the actions of companies criticized by specialists and sometimes in deficit. Consequently, After GameStop in 2021. Therefore, this is the case today of the specialist in the summer speculative bubble training Gopro photo, the real estate platform Opendoor Technologies or Kohl’s stores. Similarly, THE Wall Street Journal Says that thus Opendoor Technologies won 439% in a month! Meanwhile, But other excess indicators Alarment Experts. Furthermore, THE Wall Street Journal Indicates that the share risk premium fell to almost 0. so that the risk linked to the holding of shares is no longer remunerated. The increase in cryptos is also considered to be a quest for increased risk.

Many warnings

The euphoria that reigns to Wall Street brings the Financial Times to make it its Saturday coverage. Michael Hartnett. strategist with Bank of America, written in a note cited by Yahoo Finance: “More public investors, more liquidity, more volatility, more bubble”. He motivates his warning by the expectations of a more accommodating American monetary policy. a deregulation that would bring small investors on the stock market.

“The phenomenon of” meme summer speculative bubble training actions “is undoubtedly one of the first signs of stock market overheating in the United States.”

The increase in American actions contrasts with the uncertainty linked to the effects of the trade war. the conflicts and geopolitical tensions as well as the increase in public debts. This uncertainty is strongly linked to Donald Trump. However, the scholarships are gradually put aside the risks linked to the American administration. Financial magazine Barron’s Go so far as to ask investors to “de-trummate” their way of thinking to learn to. love the scholarship. The Taco rule, which applies to customs duties, is taken up in other areas.

But it is not awarded everyone to forget Donald Trump. A Gallup survey with investors. taken up by the WSJreveals that six out of ten investors expect the worst of volatility to be before us. The political bias of the participants is significant since 9 summer speculative bubble training out of ten democratic investors expect the worst. The fact remains that the effects of the trade war remain vague on an American economy which. as the FT indicates, defies gravity.

The valuation of American actions is undoubtedly higher than that of European actions for example. But the American clues resist. It is true that it is the changes on the margin that matter. And they are positive. The quarterly results of American groups are better than expected.

A risk of concentration

The risks of valuation and concentration that hover over the stock market are not new. Thus 10 shares represent 40% of the market capitalization throughout the American coast. The multiple of future profits of these 10 values amounts to 27 times.

The Barron’s Being reassuring by indicating that at the beginning of the year 2000. Additionally, the PER of the 10 largest values reached 44 times. summer speculative bubble training Is it reassuring? American shares then fell to finish the year 2000 decreased by 9%, before a decrease of 12% in 2001 and 22% in 2002. Other criteria point to a very high recovery. such as the PER of Shiller, higher than in 2021 and more far from the peak of the year 2000.

The performance of American actions must however be put into perspective by the exchange effect. The greenback lost 12.8% in the first half. Thus, the MSCI World Global Actions index has certainly increased by 12.6% in dollars, but it fell 1.3% in Swiss francs, observes The Market, the NZZ financial site. American shares are therefore cheaper than it seems for a Swiss investor. However, the valuation criteria are not adjusted for exchange effects. The American scholarship therefore remains very expensive and vulnerable to the slightest disappointment.