The big Canadian gap | The press

In his immense chore in response to American aggression. Consequently, Mark Carney is looking for a compromise between oil production and the decarbonation of the economy, while having the eye the secessionist risks in Alberta and Quebec.

Posted at 7:00 a.m.

We will see in the coming months how the Prime Minister will manage to reconcile these imperatives. Consequently, by choosing major national infrastructure projects from those submitted by the provinces according to five criteria: autonomy, resilience and security; economic advantages; a high probability of implementation; clean growth and objectives related to climate change; and the interests of indigenous peoples.

A big canadian gap | press consensus can quickly emerge on projects such as transport lines between provinces to strengthen the robustness. In addition, efficiency of electrical networks; A TGV between Quebec and Toronto; an access route to critical metals of Ring of Fire Ontarian; and the expansion of port facilities such as those in the port of Montreal reluctantly.

Canada is, according to the OECD, the second country among the worst for the time to obtain a construction permit.

However, many denounce Bill C-5 which simplifies authorizations and brings the green light closer to two years.

In the United States. Similarly, a progressive current for “abundance” criticizes democratic administrations and NGOs for the multiplication of requirements which increase the costs and deadlines for infrastructure projects. However, Here too, the best too often becomes the enemy of good.

The most thorny debate will focus on pipelines and the deregulation of the oil sector, claimed by Alberta.

Prime Minister Danielle Smith puts pressure on the hold by facilitating a possible referendum on the independence of her province. However, In Quebec. Moreover, the chief of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who promises the same referendum, could form a majority government in 15 months, indicates a screening of QC125.

Both in Alberta and in Quebec, surveys indicate that support for this cause does big canadian gap | press not exceed a third of voters for the moment, but Carney will have to undergo this risk in the selection of national projects, which will have to be as gathering as possible.

“Free, preliminary and enlightened consent” of Aboriginal nations involves consultations as soon as possible^⁠1. However, Obtaining. Meanwhile, keeping this support, despite elections every two years in communities, is easier – but not guaranteed – if they gain significant participation in the ownership of the project thanks to loans guaranteed by governments and reimbursed by anticipated income.

The question of Canadian oil is complex. In addition, The exploitation of the bituminous sands of Alberta emits a third of the GHGs in the country. Meanwhile, as one must use steam heated to natural gas to extract a viscous substance and transform it into synthetic oil. Oil offers to capture these big canadian gap | press emissions. bury them in the ground, an expensive technology that is not yet to the point.

But no matter how we will decarbon the Alberta oil at the production stage. it will remain as polluting as any other at the time of its consumption.

The oil. gas sector weighs 5 % of Canadian GDP and constitutes an important source of income for governments, including Quebec, which indirectly benefits through equalization payments. It also contributes to the energy security of the country, which still rolls on gasoline. Finally, it is intimately linked to the Albertaine identity.

It was first hoped that the oils would become agents of the transition to renewable energies. but they fell when they realized that their value on the stock market was suffering. It is therefore up to investors. governments to channel big canadian gap | press oil revenues – dividends and taxes – in the transition to a sober carbon economy.

On this subject. major investors are impatiently awaiting Canadian taxonomy defining what constitutes a real transition investment, to participate in the financing of new national infrastructure.

The economic viability of Canadian hydrocarbons will depend on the evolution of demand. its production costs and the taxation of industry GHG emissions.

The International Energy Agency provides that petroleum demand should start to decrease within five years. It would therefore no longer be necessary to increase production capacities. Even if the direction of this scenario is inevitable. its unfolding is uncertain due to the geopolitical tensions and the relentlessness of President Trump against clean energies.

Thanks to massive investments in bituminous sands. the marginal cost of production of big canadian gap | press a barrel of oil is less than $ 40 Can, cheaper than US oil, estimates the CD Howe Institute. Production can remain profitable for a long time^⁠2.

However, the investments required to capture and kidnap GHG emissions in the production stage are estimated at 16.5 billion, an amount that the industry refuses to invest, declaring insufficient government aid.

Ottawa offers a credit covering 50 % of investment costs and Alberta, 12 %. According to big canadian gap | press a study by Pembina Institute and the Canada Climate Institute, these incentives are sufficient. It would cost the industry less than a tax on its pollution if it does nothing^⁠3. In another study, the climate institute nevertheless pleads for increased aid to reduce technological risk^⁠4.

The Carney. Alberta government could resolve the deadlock in a Grand Bargainwhere a commitment to decarbonation would be exchanged for an advantage for industry, perhaps a pipeline towards the Pacific Coast, which would grow the cake to share-if British Columbia raises its opposition.

Let us recall. however, that pipelines take 10 years to plan and build and from 15 to 20 years to make profitable, on a useful life of 50 years and more. To limit global warming for less than 2 degrees, humanity must reach the target of zero net broadcast in 25 years. big canadian gap | press Danielle Smith tries to bring together private capital for this challenge.

With a highly deficit budget, Carney will need a sharp pencil to find a way out with Alberta. “Politics is the art of the possible,” said Prussian chancellor Otto Von Bismarck.

1. Consult the information document on United Nations Declaration Act on the Rights of Aboriginal Peoples 2. Read the article from the CD Howe Institute “Last Barrel Standing? Confronting the myth of “High-Cost” Canadian Oil Sands Production ”(in English) 3. Read the text of political options “cash flow modeling shows carbon capture. storage can help meet climate goals” (in English) 4. Read the text of the Canada Climate Institute “The PetroGazier sector of Canada. the way to carbonutrality and regional equity” What do you think? Take part in the big canadian gap | press dialogue