Here are some lessons.
The transatlantic link is damaged. Sustainably?
It appears that the confidence of respondents towards the solidity of the transatlantic link has been eroded since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, on January 20, 2025. Depending on the country, the respondents are between 20 and 62 % to think that the relationship between the United States and Europe will improve once Donald Trump has left, in January 2029. And a quarter of respondents believe that the damage inflicted by the Trump administration on the relationship with Europe will still make their effects even after the mandate of the current president.
Support for Ukraine, with or without the United States
Furthermore, the answers to several questions testify, that in various degrees, the respondents believe that Europe should not follow the United States if NATO’s first military and economic power should withdraw its military support from Ukraine, force the latter to abandon the territories conquered by Russia, or lift the economic sanctions taken against Moscow to respond to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Trump administration blows hot and cold on this subject.
Note that the Hungarians and the Italians, two countries whose leaders, Viktor Orban and Giorgia Meloni, both close to Donald Trump, would be the most inclined to follow the American path.
Will Europe be ready to defend itself alone in five years? Not sure
Following the assault of Ukraine, the European Union works to strengthen its capacity to ensure its own security and defense. The European Commission notably launched in mid-March a rearmament plan for the EU member states, which could mobilize up to 800 billion euros by 2030. And at the NATO summit, the allies-in majority of European countries-should undertake to bring to 5 % of their GDP their expenses in favor of the defense, by 2035 (more precisely: 3.5 % for military expenses % of security expenditure in the broad sense, such as cybersecurity or military mobility).
Donald Trump comes to settle NATO’s accounts: “Are the Americans really ready to let go of their leadership?”
A small part of the French, Romanian, Portuguese and Danish respondents think that the EU could become independent of the United States to ensure its own security and defense; The respondents of other countries are rather of the opinion that it will be impossible.
Loans to increase defense spending
Arranged to increase the expenses for defense, a majority of respondents are favorable to an increase in public spending in their country, with the exception of Italians and Italians. Nevertheless, apart from Estonia and Denmark, two of the countries for which the Russian threat is the most tangible, none of the other sample countries are ready for these expenses to reach 5 % of GDP, as required (successfully), Donald Trump of NATO member states.
Europeans divided on the return of compulsory military service
Finally, we note that the French, all age categories combined, would support the reintroduction of a compulsory service (with support that increases with the age of surveyed). The Germans, the Poles, the Portuguese and the Romanians would also be favorable there, except the surveyed in the 18-29 year old category (with strong opposition among the Germans) and also that of the 30-39 year olds in Romania. The measure would receive very little support in Italy and the United Kingdom (where it would only be supported by those over 60), and would meet firm opposition, all age categories, in Hungary and Spain.
