The conservative chief Pierre Poilievre remains the big favorite to win the by-election on Monday in the constituency of Battle River-Crowfoot, a conservative bastion in Alberta, even if he must face a record number of 213 other candidates.
If the victory of Mr. Hairy is hardly in doubt in the eyes of observers, some, like Julie Simmons, a professor of political science at the University of Guelph, Ontario, wonder about the majority he should obtain.
From 2005 to 2025, the conservative candidate has always obtained at least 80 % of the votes cast in this rural county of Alberta. Only one exception: in 2021, the outgoing deputy Damien Kurek had to “be satisfied” 71 % of the votes, because of the presence of a candidate of the People’s Party of Canada by Maxime Bernier who had hacked his support.
“It’s really a conservative fortress,” says Professor Simmons.
Lori Williams, a professor of political science at Mount Royal University, of Calgary, believes that Mr. Poilievre must win “a decisive victory” so that the voters are sure of his capacities as head of the opposition to the House of Commons. A overwhelming victory could greatly help him for the revision of his leadership which will take place in January.
“He must absolutely overcome this obstacle,” emphasizes Pre Williams. If he crosses it, he will have to cross others. How can he be an effective opposition chief in this environment? How can he demonstrate that he is pro-Canadian and criticism of this government at the same time? »»
The by -election was made necessary following the resignation of Mr. Kurek, who won in April by obtaining 83 % of the votes cast. He decided to give his place to his chief Pierre Hairy defeated in his constituency of Carleton.
According to PRE Simmonds, if Mr. Hairy obtains support less than 80 %, he can criticize opponents like the independent candidate Bonnie Crichley.
The former member of the retired Canadian Armed Forces describes Mr. Hairy as a parachute candidate who only presents himself to advance his political career.
Mr. Poilievre was born and grew up in Calgary, but he has lived in Ottawa for two decades.
A large majority of candidates are members of the group of the longest election committee who claims changes to the Canadian electoral system. They could bite in Mr. Hairyvre’s percentage of voting, advances Pre Simmons.
“For some voters, this could allow them a vote of protest against the conservative party. »»
The Liberals present Darcy Spady, who works in the energy sector, while Katherine Swampy, a former advisor to the Samson nation, carries the banner of the NPD.
Johnatan Bridges (People’s Party) and Ashley Macdonald (Green Party) are among the string of candidates.
A suitable bulletin
Due to the presence of 214 candidates, Elections Canada has chosen, for the first time since the start of the Confederation, to print an adapted bulletin which will have no name.
Instead of marking the candidate of their choice using an “X” or a hook, as usual, voters will have to write his name on a line. Despite everything, the list of all candidates will be available.
Elections Canada indicated that each vote will be counted even if an error has been made in the name of the chosen candidate “insofar as [l’]intention is clear ”.
More than 14,000 of some 86,000 registered voters participated in anticipation voting.
A spokesperson for the organization of Mr. Poilievre said that the conservative chief intended to spend the day on Monday in Camrose, the largest city in the constituency.
Elections Canada has already warned that counting could take longer than usual.
